Yemen's Game of Thrones - The threat from the north

The Houthi rebel group continues to make gains in the north and the central government continues to ignore was it turning out to be a potential existential threat. Houthis have been knocking around northern Yemen since the early 2000s but it was only with the advent of the Arab Spring that the group escalated its activities and strengthened its hold on the north. Its growing strength has brought it into direct competition with Salafist communities allied to Saudi Arabia, Islah party militia and al-Ahmer tribesmen leaving hundreds dead. The Houthis have also engaged Yemeni military forces. Over the past month the group has made further gains in the north and has signed at least two ceasefires with the government; however, the sense is, is that the current ceasefire, signed on 21 June, will not hold for very long. The Houthis are demanding that an NDC federal regions proposal be scrapped. The new regions will effectively divide the Houthi staging areas in the north into three separate regions and produce "rich and poor regions". The Houthi opposition is also enflamed by the presence of conservative Salafist armed presence in the north, the encroachment of Saudi Arabia into its area of influence and, no doubt, the undue influence Shiite Iran has for the Shiite Houthi group. The government is happy to wait it out it seems. It is also unclear whether the Hadi administration can even confront the Houthis effectively given its focus on securing critical oil and gas supplies and suppressing tribal agitation in Marib, separatist sentiment in the south and AQAP in the south and south east. Hadi's test is yet to come it seems but in the mean time the Houthis will try and eke out further gains in the north.