Wednesday, October 21, 2015

A new cycle of violence in Israel

Israel and the Palestinian territories (the West Bank and Gaza Strip) have experienced a wave of civil unrest and associated violence since early October. The primary hotspots for protests have been religious sites, borders between Jewish settlements and Palestinian communities, as well as Israeli security force posts, checkpoints and border crossing points. Coinciding with this violence, knife, vehicular and shooting attacks have spiked considerably and have spread to Israel with notable recent incidents reported in Beersheba, Tel Aviv, western Jerusalem and Dimona. The protests and violence are linked to disputes over access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem, the third-holiest site in Islam. Palestinian Muslims have accused the Israeli authorities of attempting to change the status quo in the area regarding access to the site. Visits by right-wing Jewish and Israeli political personalities have further stoked tensions and mistrust though the course of 2015. Indeed, associated low-level unrest and tensions as well as the general relationship between the Palestinians and Israelis have declined since the events of July and August 2014, when Israel and Hamas fought a major conflict in the Gaza Strip.

The Temple Mount with the Dome of the Rock (background) and Al-Aqsa Mosque (foreground).

Monday, October 12, 2015

red24: Egypt’s parliamentary elections

Egypt has entered an election phase with legislative elections due to be held from mid-October to early December. The election period coincides with ongoing insecurity in numerous areas of the country and attempts by the military-backed government to stabilise the political system, encourage economic growth and eliminate its domestic opponents. The forthcoming election, which is unlikely to result in any meaningful changes to the political system, is likely to be preceded by an increase in local level election-related rallies while a number of parties opposed to the military, including the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), are expected to boycott the poll and may increase anti-government protests marginally in the run up to and during the election phases. Non-state armed groups may also seek to disrupt the voting and any state-initiated election events as part of their overall strategy to undermine the military-backed regime. Protests and acts of violence will, however, not be severe and the current baseline security risks will remain largely unchanged.