The Iraq end game

The crisis in Iraq is deepening but not for the reasons you think. The media focus has been on the crushing defeats the ISIL has inflicted upon the Iraqi Army. This is true but the core Iraqi force, its Shiite allies and the large Kurd Peshmerga in the far north remain intact and 75 to 85% of Iraq's oil production capacity is unaffected. Indeed, oil supply has increased not decreased since the start of the militant assault on 6 June. Of particular concern is the further deepening schism of the Iraqi polity. Kurd forces have moved into disputed territories in federal Iraq, including the Kurd Jerusalem, Kirkuk, and have stated plainly that they are there to stay. Sunni tribes and a range of militant bodies have taken advantage of the security situation to take control of some areas in the Sunni heartland of Anbar. In the south, Shiite militias and Shiite volunteer armies have been mobilized to 'defend against the militants'. Demobilising this force seems a long way off. Iran, for its part, is seeking to secure the Shiite core and has dispatched troops to assist to defend Shiite religious sites and the predominantly Shiite government while the US is also mulling air strikes against the Sunnis. The militant offensive will end at some point and it is likely that the primary grouping, ISIL, will be unable to hang on to the territory it has acquired given its relatively lesser strength. The Sunni polity, divided as it is will become the side show for a wider Shiite Kurd confrontation over the Kirkuk oil fields which could increasingly draw Turkey, which supports the Kurds, and Iran, which supports the Shiite south.