Thursday, February 24, 2011

Madness? This is Libya


Megalomania comes in many forms but next to the definition in the Oxford is a picture of one Muammar al-Gaddafi. His insane rants and bizare approach to governance have finally come to a head after a tumultuous forty year reign during which he kept a near iron clad fist on the country. Today, the country is torn by unrest and split in three. The historical areas of Tripolotania, Cyrrenica and Fezzan have once again emerged out of the sands of the Sahara (Fezzan in the south is likely to fall under the sway of one of the two other regions). The eastern forces of Cyrennica around the ancient citadel of Benghazi are gathering momentum as we speak and are likely to attempt an offensive to capture the capital of Tripolitana at any moment. Standing in there way are the mercenary forces of Gaddafi and his loyal praetorian guards. If they do attempt a blitzkrieg across the nearly 500 miles of desert their victory will not be a certainty. There is still much that can happen. With American fleets in the Mediteranean and the UN peacekeeping force a resolution away, foreign intervention is still a possibility. Even the northern Chadian rebels or chad government may attempt to capture parts of Fezzan in revenge for Gaddafi's 1980s ventures into the Saharan state. Mecasr watches with interest.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Unrest grips the Middle East

Unrest continues to grip multiple area in the Middle East and North Africa. Emboldened by protests in Tunisia and Egypt, opposition groups in Libya (multiple cities), Yemen (Aden, Taiz and Sanaa) and Bahrain (Manama) are taking to the streets on 17 February in an attempt to oust the regimes. The security forces are doing everything in their power to suppress the protests, however, one gets the sense that the momentum is with the people and further resignations and significant political reforms are likely.