Pakistan: The implications of Nawaz Sharif's deportation

The deportation of Pakistan's ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif on 10 September has deepened the country's ongoing political crisis. Sharif was granted the right to return by the Supreme Court in August, but Musharraf maintains that the man he ousted in a 1999 coup was in violation of an exile commitment. The General alleges (and is supported by allies from the Saudi government) that a deal struck in 2000, committed Sharif to at least ten years in exile in Saudi Arabia. The deportation is bound to have significant repercussions for Pakistan's political landscape. For more, please click here.

Standing gaurd over Iraq

Gen. David Petraeus is due to report back to congress today and tomorrow on the current state of the Iraq war. His findings will be crucial in the final decision on the troop withdrawal from the embattled country. Debka.com outline a few of the current issues confrotning the US army in Iraq. Below are a few selected. For the full text, please click here.

Along with improved security in some districts in and outside Baghdad, US commanders on the spot agree that they are still short of strength for cementing their control of the territory gained and completely routing al Qaeda and Sunni and Shiite insurgent forces. They also agree that the security gains and the measures they have put in place will soon melt away once American troops are gone.

Baghdad’s fall to the Shiites would spell the demise of Baghdad as the seat of central federal government. The country would then fall apart into three or four entities which would claim independence and sink into fraternal warfare. The American army would become irrelevant having lost is primary missions, barring the fight against al Qaeda.

The offensive against al Qaeda’s forces in Iraq is still unfinished. The jihadists appear to have lowered their profile, but nowhere, even in Anbar, do their followers seem to be at breaking point or near turning tail. The reverse is true: they are struggling towards a recovery from successive American blows.

It is clear to even the most amateur watcher of the Iraq war that the US find themselves in a no win situation. Withdraw and the state collapses leading to a Shiite theocracy and Iranian resurgence to the detriment of local allies. Stay and continue to suffer politically damaging heavy losses. Much rests on the ability of the Iraqi forces themselves wresting control of the country away from unlawful elements. If the Iraqi government falls or is driven out of Baghdad, the game is up and Iraq will fall squarely into the Somalia category.

Sri Lankan army gains in the north

South Asia review highlights the growing problem faced by the Sri Lankan armys onward march into Tamil territory in James Voortman's new oped "Sri Lanka: The political implications of an assault on the north" Read more about it here.

Smuggling and conflict: Security threat to southern Israel

Egyptian security forces discovered a cache of explosives on 2 September 100km south of el-Arish in the Sinai. The cache, destined for the Gaza Strip, contained none other than the 240 mm Kayutsha rocket, used successively against Israel by Hezbollah in the 2006 Summer war. If Gaza groups had gained control of these weapons the cities of Ashkelon, Netivot and possible Beersheba could have been targeted. There is no evidence to suggest however, that groups like Islamic Jihad and Hamas don’t have these weapons already. Over the past year statements have been made that militants are stockpiling offensive weaponry in the Gaza Strip in preparation for a full out conflict with Israel. It would make sense therefore for the militants to bide their time and wait for an opportunity to strike at Israel when their attention is diverted to the north or in the West Bank. At present the groups are using lower yield rockets, the Qassam (pictured bottom) that hardly cause any physical damage and is rather used to sow chaos in southern Israeli communities. Israel has not responded to the latest threats, due in part to the ongoing negotiations with Fatah, however, with increasing pressure at home to take out Hamas and secure border communities, Olmert's hand may be forced, leading to an escalation and an answer to the question on everyone's lips "Do Gaza militants possess long range offensive weapons?"

Crucial Lebanese poll

The Lebanese parliament is due back in chambers on 25 September to elect a new Christian president to replace pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud. The issue of the presidency is largely symbolic, however, if a new president is not chosen before the November cut off or a quorum of 86 out of 128 MPs is rejected by the opposition, the country may face a serious internal political stalemate that may threaten civil war. Since the events of 2005 when ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was brutally slain in an apparent Syrian car bomb attack the country has been deeply divided between two main camps, pro-Syrian March 8 forces and anti-Syrian March 14 forces led by the Future Movement (FM) and Hariri's son Saad. The opposition has voiced concerns over the FM's pro-Western stance and its refusal to accept a unity government deal that would give the opposition more of a voice and crucially, a cabinet veto. During November 2006, the opposition launched a series of protests and demonstrations in Beirut in an attempt to force the issue. However, backed by the army the government has managed to hang on to power and reject the opposition demands.

The two sides are now obliged to work together to elect a new president. While it is constitutional requirement to have a Christian president, just how the government plans to elect him remains a mystery. With insufficient parliamentary clout to force a quorum, the FM has no choice but to negotiate with the opposition. There are signs also that the opposition may be softening their demands to ease this decision. In late August, parliamentary speaker Nabih Berry said the opposition would be willing to withdraw their unity government demand if a consensus candidate could be elected. This new development may be an opportunity for the FM to open up to a possible opposition candidate or at least a candidate acceptable to both parties.

For the meanwhile at least, hopes are high that the government can pull through this current crisis and with the army having recently defeated the Fatah al-Islam insurrection near Tripoli (2 September), come to some sort of working agreement with the opposition. However, these positive signs must not detract from the continuing risk. There is reason to believe that the country may be heading towards all out civil war. Hezbollah maintains a well equipped armed force in the south and have allegedly reequipped their missile crews and troops with Syrian assistance. The USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group has also taken up position along the Lebanese coast and Adm. William Fallon has met with the FM government on at least one occasion. The outcome of the presidential election is being watched by all sides and its outcome either peaceful or violent will have serious ramifications for the future of this embattled Mediterranean state.