Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Obama in the Middle East and Central Asia - Report card on 'perceptions'

Relations with Muslims - A+

Obama has said all the right things. Key note address in Cairo addressing the relationship was key to projecting an image to the region that he cared about Muslims. Backlash at home where perceptions that he was Muslim hurt him politically.

Iraq conflict - B-

Decision to withdraw was good for his home support; however, a deadlocked government and increasing brazeness of extremists a worry. Did he withdraw too soon?

Afghanistan - C

Increase use of drones to target Taleban. Doomed to fail. Generations of mujahadeen are waiting to replaced the depleted leadership ranks. Taleban growing in strength. Obama and Karzai forced to negotiate.

Pakistan - D

Increasing use of drone attacks in tribal areas. Counter-productive. See above.

Yemen - B

Measured approach to counter-terrorism in Yemen. Obama has clearly learnt that a measured approach is best. Increased aid to Yemen and intelligence supply. Obama needs to see results soon though otherwise will come under increasing pressure to do more ie boots on the ground or drone strikes.