The True Size of Countries

 

Inequality in South Africa? Which Province fares best?

 Well, you decide.

https://www.westerncape.gov.za/provincial-treasury/sites/provincial-treasury.westerncape.gov.za/files/atoms/files/Western%20Cape%20Overview%20of%20Provincial%20Revenue%20and%20Expenditure%202023.pdf

Trust the Data - Vote accordingly South Africa

 

South Africa's Geopolitical Challenges

 South Africa's geopolitical concerns are deeply intertwined with its unique geography. The economic epicenter in Gauteng faces challenges due to the absence of navigable rivers, relying instead on an extensive road network for transportation. Stability in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is vital, given its pivotal ports essential for international trade.

Managing secessionist sentiments, notably in the Western Cape, is crucial for national unity. Moreover, South Africa's leadership within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) requires delicate diplomacy to balance regional dynamics. Additionally, navigating China's growing influence in Africa presents both opportunities and challenges, shaping South Africa's foreign policy decisions. These geopolitical factors underscore the intricate balance South Africa must maintain between domestic stability, regional leadership aspirations, and global partnerships, emphasizing the complexity of its geopolitical landscape.

The African Union

• AU grapples with conflicts, hampering peace efforts.
• Economic development hindered by corruption, infrastructure gaps.
• Global influence limited by powerful actors.
• Regional cooperation stymied by divergent interests.
• Overcoming challenges needs concerted efforts for AU's vision of a united Africa.

The African Union (AU) grapples with a myriad of geopolitical challenges that test its efficacy and relevance in the global arena. Foremost among these challenges is the persistence of conflicts and instability across the continent. From the enduring crises in regions like the Horn of Africa and the Sahel to the emergence of new conflicts in places like the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the AU faces an uphill battle in maintaining peace and security. Limited resources, differing national interests, and complex ethnic and political dynamics often impede effective conflict resolution efforts, highlighting the AU's struggles in asserting its authority and influence.

Economic development remains a daunting task for the AU as well. Despite Africa's vast potential and abundant natural resources, many countries continue to grapple with poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment. Rampant corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and economic dependencies on external actors further exacerbate these challenges. While initiatives like Agenda 2063 outline ambitious plans for economic transformation, implementation often falls short due to governance failures, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a lack of financial resources.

On the global stage, the AU's relevance is frequently overshadowed by more powerful international actors. Africa's voice in global affairs is often marginalized, and its interests are sometimes disregarded in favor of those of major powers. Limited diplomatic leverage, institutional weaknesses, and historical legacies of colonialism constrain the AU's ability to shape international agendas and policies effectively.

Regionally, while the AU strives to promote cooperation and integration, it contends with divergent national interests and competing priorities among its member states. Disputes over borders, resources, and governance frequently undermine efforts at regional unity and solidarity. Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) face numerous implementation challenges, reflecting broader difficulties in achieving meaningful integration and cooperation among African nations.

In conclusion, while the AU aspires to be a force for positive change in Africa and beyond, its path is fraught with daunting geopolitical realities. From conflict resolution to economic development and global diplomacy, the AU faces formidable obstacles that require pragmatic and concerted efforts from both its member states and the international community. Success in overcoming these challenges will determine the AU's ability to fulfill its mandate and realize its vision for a peaceful, prosperous, and united Africa.

Don't put me in a box! Voting May 29 - how we stand

 Just under two months to go before South Africans go to the polls (or for 50% of registered voters, sleep in). So, where are the parties standing?

The Social Research Foundation has been kind enough to collate all the polling data. 

https://srfreports.co.za/reports/medium-term-election-polling-trends-for-south-africa

So what's going on here? It seems the DA's inability to poll higher than 23-25% continues to afflict the party. They are unable to extend support - there are multiple reasons for this - race, identity, image etc Bottomline, we'll need to 'wait and see' for the results. But if I were them, I'd be worried. The ANC has done everything it can do to shoot itself in the foot. Has the DA done everything it can to convince black, particularly rural, voters, to its side. I don't think so.

The ANC's dip is almost guaranteed - in the polls. Again, time will tell; however, the good money is on them going below 50% which would be massive in the political history of SA which has always had one dominant administration. The emergence of MK in KZN - with its massive voter base - will be a major headache for the party which could see the ANC slide from 48-49% down to 45-46%. 

The EFF, the communist white hating populists we've all come to love and hate, continue to occupy the weird 10-15% range. They won't govern anywhere really. They may be kingmakers though and that is what Sultan Malema is relying on. So, to their horde of Twitter Trolls, no, 50+ is not happening.

The IFP. KZN for you fellas. Not much to be said there. I've not seen an IFP poster outside of KZN for years.

For all the minnows, and yes that is what they are, they will try and grab a seat or two here and there. ActionSA may be one that does more than that nationally while it and a handful of others could be key in coalition governments in Gauteng.

KZN will be a hot mess and the province that experienced the worst violence in 2021 since the early 1990s mini-civil war will likely experience more hurt and pain as MK runs amok and coalitions come and go. 

The Western Cape. Sigh. How has the DA managed not to grow here? Stunning. But I'll blame the voters, freshly arrived from the EC for this one. They don't see how well the WC is doing. The DA's messaging also doesn't seem to resonate sufficiently. They'll struggle to 51% and keep it going. If they go below, the FF+ will be there to support them. 

Overall, the pre-election period should be peaceful, except in KZN. The post-election scene will be fraught with coalition chaos which could impact coalitions in municipal and metro areas. But again, peaceful, except in KZN where I am expecting more violence post-election as new realities start to take shape.

My predictions:

National (400 seats)

ANC 188 (47%)
DA 92 (23%)
EFF 56 (14%)
IFP 15 (3.5%)
FF+ 12 (3%)
ActionSA 6 (1.5%)

Minnows: 32 (8%) *

*The ANC will likely tap this pool to form a national coalition

I HATE INFLATION

 South Africa and much of the world continue to face a significant inflation problem. In SA, the problem is all the more pressing for the countless poor (50% of the population live in poverty, just under that are unemployed) where food inflation continues to track above the national inflation figure. While fuel/transport inflation has stabilized since this time last year the high prices continue to deal a double whammy to consumers. SA relies on its road network to move goods around. Higher fuel costs = higher food ... actually higher everything ... costs. Provinces also differ. The Western Cape's inflation rate continues to rise above the national figure. The government continues to respond with its old interest rate tool. It isn't an encouraging or useful tool in the SA context. Trying to stifle demand where little exists at scale is odd. With an election around the corner, the cost of everything skyrocketing will be top of mind for many voters. The rich will holiday one less time this year. The middle class will eat out once instead of twice a month. The poor won't eat every third day. The election and its aftermath will be a very, very interesting thing to watch.

Jobs! Jobs? Yes, Jobs!

 The Western Cape provincial government, led by the Democratic Alliance, has gone to great lengths to foster an investment friendly environment. Jobs, jobs, jobs! Premier Alan Winder and Cape Town Mayor Geordin Lewis have been at the frontlines of encouraging small to medium size enterprises and larger firms. After years of a majority domination, and despite receiving little to no national support, the WC has managed to drop the unemployment rate in the province to around 20%. To international readers, this may seem high but compared to the national 32% its pretty damn good. 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02114thQuarter2023.pdf

South Africa - Inflation

Its a major problem. Particularly if you live in the Western Cape where the percentage is often higher than the rest of the country. Hopefully employers take this into account when calculating increases. Often they will not and will focus on the national average. 

https://lrs.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Inflation-Monitor-February-2024.pdf

Inhumane Rights Day in Mzansi

South Africa commemorates Human Rights Day today, March 21. The day in 1960 when police opened fired on protesters in Sharpeville killing 69 people. The event was a major turning point in black South Africa's struggle for equality. Some 64 years later we sit, here in a sweltering and calm Cape Town, and ponder on the meaning of the day. For me, and I imagine for many normal South Africans, the memory of the 'dark old days' has faded and been replaced with more pressing issues. 

We have a government, a black-dominated government, which continues to fail us all. The list of its scandals has become a popular meme on South Africa's social media.

How is it that this ANC government has managed to ... excuse the French ... screw over so many people. And even after a massive State Capture Commission which fingered so many cadres in dodgy deals, do we still have a near zero conviction rate? Indeed, despite the ANC's own 'step aside' rule, the ANC's May 29 election list includes scores of persons implicated in graft. 

South Africans will face a test on May 29. Will they vote to keep the corrupted in play or will they choose a new path. Either a centrist liberal DA or perhaps a radical leftist MK or EFF. Time will tell and hopefully, registered voters will make the right choice.

South Africa - Water, Where Art Thou?

 Water. What would we be without it? Securing clean water for consumption and commercial activities is critical for the health and economy of a nation. So why is South Africa failing?

The Department of Water and Sanitation's latest Blue Drop Report provides a startling warning of what the state needs to do to ensure that safe drinking water is available for all the people of South Africa. 

The outcomes of the report paint a grim picture, particularly for those living outside of the major metros. Rural and small town South Africa have been neglected over the past 10 years with unsafe drinking water posing a direct risk. In addition, many municipalities have failed to even communicate to residents when water quality dips. This goes beyond negligence. 

In what is a cruel twist of fate, the DWS has recently signed an agreement with... ZIMBABWE...to pump treated water to Musina, Limpopo, which has been struggling with water shortages. How far South Africa has fallen.

https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/south-africa-and-zimbabwe-enter-landmark-water-sharing-deal

Nigeria's Troubled North

Conflicts define humanity to a degree. No age goes without some major catastrophe that sees blood letting that shocks the senses. Gaza is one. This week the UN warned of a potential famine in northern Gaza due to food shortages caused by the ongoing delay in food aid to the besieged territory. 

In a no less shocking development, a new Human Rights Watch report has shone the light on insecurity in Nigeria. Criminal bands continue to ravage central and northern parts of the country in an ongoing campaign of conflict over scarce resources enflamed by religious and ethnic hatred. The Islamist extremist group, Boko Haram, kidnapped approximately 200 school children in Ngala Local Government Area of Borno State in late February. On March 7, bandits kidnapped 287 schoolchildren in Kaduna State. Another 15 were kidnapped in Sokoto State on March 9. The motive? Ransom most likely. A demand has been reported by bandits related to the Kaduna issue. For the militants, the motive could be financial, religious or practical. Children make good recruits or servants. 

Nigeria's security problems run deep and are one of several plaguing the Sahel region. Coups, insurgencies, communal violence, and foreign interference mesh with conflict over resources to produce a volatile and violent playground. Little to no protests or international attention on these battles. TIA. 

HRW report https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/18/armed-groups-kidnap-hundreds-across-northern-nigeria

SA Elections - GGA Report - Western Cape takes the lead

 The latest Good Governance Africa report is out https://gga.org/governance-performance-index-south-africa-2024/ and no surprises where the best run regions are. The DA-run Western Cape dominates with some outliers in ANC-controlled locations. The bulk of poor performing regions are ANC-run. Trust the data.

South Africa Elections - May 29

 Over the past two weeks, I've shared various data points about governance, performance and service delivery. The picture I have painted shows, clearly, that areas where the Democratic Alliance (DA) governs, it governs well. Cape Town and the Western Cape have had DA-led governments for over two terms allowing the party to build and establish excellent governance records. Similiar building efforts are underway in Tshwane. Given the opportunity and time, the DA is the most likely to move South Africa forward in terms of several metrics including:

Good governance
Financial responsibility
Service delivery
Economic development
Education
Waste Removal
Electricity 

And much much more. Love or hate them, they've done the job. Isn't it time to stop voting for the African National Congress (ANC) or some other half-witted, two-person party that pops up and lean on the DA for a while? The answer is obvious if you care about the data.

SA Elections - Race

Black Twitter jumps on 'white racism' regularly while conveniently overlooking significant black racism. If a referendum came out today asking blacks to vote on whether to curtail the rights of whites, what would the result be?

In the early 1990s, the ruling white NP asked white South Africans to vote in a referendum which essentially, if passed, would lead to the end of Apartheid ie the end of white South Africa's privileged position. Thankfully, the majority voted YES. Notice the Cape's overwhelming response. This is telling and speaks to the region's incredibly liberal outlook compared to the Afrikaner nationalism that has deep roots in the north, inland part of the country.

SA Elections - Governance

 One clue to who runs what. The DA runs the bottom southwestern area. The ANC runs pretty much everything else.

SA Elections - Poverty

 The ANC has done tremendously to provide basic services to its people. Why then has it failed to move people out of poverty? And why is the opposition-held Western Cape doing so well. The obvious answer is the ANC is corrupt as hell and basically doesn't care. The DA, for its part, accused of racism and classism comes out top. 

SA Elections - The Land Question

 The EFF and ANC, two far left wing political parties in South Africa, will have you believe that land is the most critical issue facing South Africans still battling to overcome the legacy of Apartheid. Yet, poll after poll will show that jobs, crime, education, and healthcare are consistently more important. 

These two militant and populist groups will also have us believe that 'Whites' dominate land ownership when in fact the state and the Zulu's Ingonyama Trust own the bulk of land in South Africa. 

The DA is also regularly positioned by these groupings as a proxy of White Monopoly Capital and the evil West. It begs the question then why in the DA-controlled Western Cape Land Redistribution has been the most successful. It flies in the face of the propaganda spouted by the radicals.

https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/western-cape-agriculture-land-reform-report-04-dec-2023

SA Elections - Provinces

 Why are ANC-run provinces failing on almost every metric? One can't blame Apartheid forever.

SA Elections - Provincial Achievements

 I'll just leave this here.

SA Elections - Education

The government has done one thing right (with the help of universities) there are more blacks enrolling than ever before. This is great for the long term trajectory of our country. 

SA Elections - Piped Water Access

 After 27 years you'd think the ANC socialists would've got piped water right at least. Well...no.

SA Elections - Water Supply

 You need food and water. If water is switched off there are serious health concerns. So which province has the fewest outages? Trust the data. GHS 2021.

Foreign Aid & South Africa

The US is often portrayed by the ANC, EFF and its China-loving supporters to be quite an evil imperial state. Yet, every year it receives millions of dollars in aid from this same Great Satan. To anyone with commonsense, it seems that all these haters should keep quiet and tip the hat. 

https://www.foreignassistance.gov/cd/south%20africa/ 

SA Elections - Service Delivery - Bucket Toilets & Sanitation

 

The ruling party has done well in getting sanitation up to scratch. But its the Western Cape that still leads overall. Top graph from the GHS 2021. Bottom from StatSA 2019.

Why after 25 years were bucket toilets still a thing in so many ANC-led municipalities. Why is it that bucket toilets aren't such a major thing in the Western Cape? 

SA Elections - Stats - Internet access

 Access to the internet is key, globally. In poverty-stricken locations even more so. Access to the internet is access to communication, assistance, and employment. So where in South Africa is it best? The opposition-led Western Cape does it again. 

SA Elections - Stats - Waste removal

 Its not as sexy as a good race-war but for most South Africans having one's rubbish removed is an essential touch point with your government. So which region fares best? The Western Cape does it again. From the GHS 2021.

SA Elections - Stats - Where does the money come from?

 

From StatSA's General Household Survey. In the opposition-held Western Cape salaried income is highest. Grant payout tied lowest with Gauteng. Social grants - handouts essentially - are highest in the ruling parties' provinces. Socialism, it seems, doesn't mean prosperity for all.

South Africa's General Elections 2024

 South Africans go to the polls May 29 to select a new national (National Assembly which elects the president) and provincial leadership. The contest couldn't be tighter. In the run-up to the poll I'll be posting a few statistics which could help you decide. So keep an eye on the blog in the coming weeks.

South Africa's military mis-adventures

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) deployed to the eastern DRC in December 2023. The deployment, which follows the announcement of the phased MONUSCO withdrawal, is aimed at supporting efforts to stabilize the troubled region where rebel groups (allegedly some supported by neighboring countries) have waged decades of war against the central government and local citizens. The latest manifestation of the militia scourge is the M23...one of approximately 120 groups of varying sizes and capabilities in the region. 

A large part of the deployed contingent are members of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). The SA contingent consists of approximately 3,000 troops at a cost of ZAR 2 billion (for 2024). They along with Malawian and Tanzanian troops are arrayed near Goma and Sake in the North Kivu Province. The deployment has gotten off to a shaky start with M23 rebels making inroads across the province recently and threatening Goma itself. On Feb. 14, indirect (mortar) fire targeting a SANDF position killed two soldiers and wounded three more.

The SANDF is chronically underfunded, under-resourced, and understaffed. Some estimates place the number of available troops at any given time at around 14,000. These forces, which are stretched due to operations in Mozambique, domestically in South Africa and now DRC, lack sufficient combat and supply support. Rooivalk helicopters (3) in the DRC have been grounded for a year. Of the 5 Oryx helicopters in the DRC, only two are functioning. This means that air support during defensive or offensive operations are basically non-existent and if troops are in need of evacuation or resupply getting these will be increasingly difficult.

It seems only a matter of time before yet another ANC-led South African disaster. Any concerted push by rebels on a SADC force base is likely to result in a massacre. Rebels are reportedly well-equipped to deal with any force they encounter in the region. Rwanda is accused of supplying M23 with advanced weaponry, including guided mortar and SAMs to the M23. 

The decision to deploy to the country seems yet another worryingly daft decision by Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC inner circle who are keen to portray South Africa as a player on the international stage. Following its disastrous ICJ case - which resonated only with authoritarian and socialist governments and movements - the deployment could be the nail in South Africa's international prestige coffin. This will come at the expense of South African service personnel.

Sall's Senegal in the Throws of Crisis

Senegal is trumpeted as an example of a successful democracy. Well, by African standards its done rather well. The military hasn't played a major role in regime change recently like countries elsewhere in the sub-region. Yet, here we stand, again. President Macky Sall and his Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition have decided to delay the elections until the end of the year. The move comes on the back of years of democratic back sliding with various prominent opposition figures arrested and tried on varying charges. The opposition claim the cases are politically-motivated. The government claims innocence and rule of law. Well, if rule of law is to stand the test now rests with the judiciary. The presidential election can not be held at the end of the year. It must be held in quarter 2. Will the judiciary stand or will it succumb meekly like so many other institutions in Africa have over the past decade. And what of the street, civil unrest is sure to follow.

The Middle East Conflagration

The attack on Tower 22 in Jordan this last weekend by Iran-aligned militia must be seen as a 'red line' by the Biden administration. An attack that can not go unresponded to. Indeed, Biden has warned that a response is coming. As of Feb. 1, we have not seen any action. Yet, action is highly likely. What form it takes is another question. 

It is unlikely that the US will conduct any direct attack on Iranian territory. To do so, would escalate beyond what the US government would find acceptable. In turn, Iran would be required to escalate as well. My sense is they will target an Iranian or Iranian adjacent interest in one of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. Syria is the most likely target. The Syrian regime hasn't the capability to respond and the country hosts IRGC forces. Israel regularly attacks IRGC and Hezbollah interests in this country. Finding a target that will adequately measure the attack on Tower 22, assuage the thirst for retaliation among the US and its allies and meet the US public's expectations for an adequate response will be key. 

We wait and see.

Cape Town - Hiking Security

My home town of Cape Town has a crime problem. A beautiful city, a tourist hotspot, and great place to watch a cricket game. But crime. Its everywhere. Nowhere more so than Table Mountain National Park. Incidents in the park peaked in 2023 with over 100 incidents of muggings, assaults, and vehicle break-ins. The problem got so severe that the City of Cape Town (not responsible for policing - this is a national power), was forced to deploy 80 patrollers to monitor key hotspots between the famed Table Mountain Cable Car Station and Signal Hill, including Lions Head.

Incidents continue to be reported through 2024 and the hotspots remain areas noted above and typically within 200 meters of the park perimeter. Attacks further up the mountain are rare. With a trove of available targets at the park edge the incentive to trek higher up remains pretty low for the average criminal.

Here is a map I produce, tracking incidents. It's been used by the City of Cape Town, various news media, and hiking groups

     . 

Check it and let me know what you think.