Don't put me in a box! Voting May 29 - how we stand

 Just under two months to go before South Africans go to the polls (or for 50% of registered voters, sleep in). So, where are the parties standing?

The Social Research Foundation has been kind enough to collate all the polling data. 

https://srfreports.co.za/reports/medium-term-election-polling-trends-for-south-africa

So what's going on here? It seems the DA's inability to poll higher than 23-25% continues to afflict the party. They are unable to extend support - there are multiple reasons for this - race, identity, image etc Bottomline, we'll need to 'wait and see' for the results. But if I were them, I'd be worried. The ANC has done everything it can do to shoot itself in the foot. Has the DA done everything it can to convince black, particularly rural, voters, to its side. I don't think so.

The ANC's dip is almost guaranteed - in the polls. Again, time will tell; however, the good money is on them going below 50% which would be massive in the political history of SA which has always had one dominant administration. The emergence of MK in KZN - with its massive voter base - will be a major headache for the party which could see the ANC slide from 48-49% down to 45-46%. 

The EFF, the communist white hating populists we've all come to love and hate, continue to occupy the weird 10-15% range. They won't govern anywhere really. They may be kingmakers though and that is what Sultan Malema is relying on. So, to their horde of Twitter Trolls, no, 50+ is not happening.

The IFP. KZN for you fellas. Not much to be said there. I've not seen an IFP poster outside of KZN for years.

For all the minnows, and yes that is what they are, they will try and grab a seat or two here and there. ActionSA may be one that does more than that nationally while it and a handful of others could be key in coalition governments in Gauteng.

KZN will be a hot mess and the province that experienced the worst violence in 2021 since the early 1990s mini-civil war will likely experience more hurt and pain as MK runs amok and coalitions come and go. 

The Western Cape. Sigh. How has the DA managed not to grow here? Stunning. But I'll blame the voters, freshly arrived from the EC for this one. They don't see how well the WC is doing. The DA's messaging also doesn't seem to resonate sufficiently. They'll struggle to 51% and keep it going. If they go below, the FF+ will be there to support them. 

Overall, the pre-election period should be peaceful, except in KZN. The post-election scene will be fraught with coalition chaos which could impact coalitions in municipal and metro areas. But again, peaceful, except in KZN where I am expecting more violence post-election as new realities start to take shape.

My predictions:

National (400 seats)

ANC 188 (47%)
DA 92 (23%)
EFF 56 (14%)
IFP 15 (3.5%)
FF+ 12 (3%)
ActionSA 6 (1.5%)

Minnows: 32 (8%) *

*The ANC will likely tap this pool to form a national coalition