Thursday, May 12, 2011

A head of the hydra - al-Qaeda's ideal live on

While Osama Bin Laden has been eradicated the threat of terrorism is as strong as ever in the Middle East.

Al-Qaeda as everyone knows by now is a largely symbolic group. Once it was comprised of a number of highly capable mujahedeen but today its membership has been severely depleted as the US and UK chase down and eliminate its operatives across the world. However, the idea of al-Qaeda has not died and has spawned a number of major terrorist organizations across the region that are not only surviving but are growing. The four major bodies include al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM, formerly the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat) which operates in the Sahel region (a vast desert expanse in North Africa), al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) based in Yemen.

These group are highly active in their areas of operation. AQIM have kidnapped a large number of foreigners in recent years for astonishingly large ransoms. The most current case involves a French national – AQIM are demanding 90 million euros for her release. Al-Shabaab also has not only grown into an effective terrorist force but also a major combat force. The group currently controls large parts of Somalia and Mogadishu and a final victory and push towards an Islamic state has only been halted by the presence of a small African Union force. The ISI also control some territory in Iraq; however, its speciality, mass casualty civilian attacks, has improved over the years to what Osama would agree is an art form. Its operatives also continue to assassinate scores of state officials every month and when the US do eventually withdraw fully by the end of the year, there scope of operations and brazenness may increase further. In Yemen, the basket case of the Middle East, former al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and Yemen forces have joined hands in the mountainous and largely lawless east of Yemen and have formed AQAP. One need only Google the name and Yemen to get an idea of the threat the group pose to the state, its increasing presence and growing threat to the world. Few remember that this group is responsible for the 2009 Christmas Day bomb plot over Detroit and the 2010 cargo plane bomb plot over the US and in the UAE. This group is looking to expand and as the Yemeni state collapses around it it will find ample volunteers and room to grow into a global terrorist force.

So, in summary, is it time to rejoice as the Yanks did on 2 May when news broke of OBL's departure from this world? No. A number of threats remain and the threat is growing.