How safe is Egypt?

I recently completed a piece for the red24 Blog on Egypt and I asked the question, how safe is it? Thousands of tourists enter the country each year and they are, generally, blissfully unaware of the security risks of doing so. To access the piece, follow this link https://opinion.red24.com/2015/08/23/how-safe-is-egypt

Turkey - Spiking levels of violence threaten to escalate to conflict

A spate of low-level shootings and bombings in south eastern Turkey has raised concerns of a return to a full scale conflict between the Kurdistan Workers'Party (PKK) and the Turkish state. The increasing frequency of attacks, which have included assassinations, conventional and suicide bombings and shootings targeting police and military facilities and personnel, started in the days after a major suicide bombing in Suruc. A suspected suicide bomber targeted a group of pro-Kurdish volunteers in the town leaving 32 people dead. The political opposition was quick to condemn the attack but, in an effort to gain some political capital, also blamed Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP)–led government for not doing enough to prevent the attack. The PKK went one step further and linked the government to the IS attack, claiming that the Turkish security forces were complicit in the attack.

Since 24 July, the Turkish government has gone on the offensive against both groupings. It has banned a number of protests in major cities and launched airstrikes against PKK targets in south eastern Turkey and northern Iraq killing dozens of PKK fighters. Turkey has also taken the decision to allow a US-led coalition access to the Incirlik air base to fly manned missions against IS in Syria. There are also plans to create a small buffer zone in northern Syria.

This significant about face did not, however, develop overnight. The US and its NATO partners (Turkey is also a member of NATO) have long sought a greater Turkish role in the Syrian conflict. Pressure from the US must've been significant in recent weeks as manned missions launched from other bases in the region against IS have been hampered by the great travel distances. The rapid breakdown in the relationship between the PKK and the Turkish government has also deteriorated significantly in recent months following several accusations that the Turkish military was deploying additional military forces to Kurd regions in the south east. In early July, the Kurd umbrella group, the Union of Kurdistan Communities (KCK), which includes the PKK, announced that the unilateral ceasefire was over in response to these "violations."

The Suruc bombing then was the final straw that broke the camel's back. Already under severe strain due its failure to secure a ruling majority in the recent 7 June elections or to create a viable ruling coalition, the AKP government went on the offensive. The government launched airstrikes and deployed its military in greater numbers to the Syrian border and restive Turkish south east. Turkey's western partners are likely to be severely uneasy with the assault on the PKK; however, given Turkey's critical role in the fight against IS, they are unlikely to raise too much in the way of protest.

The escalating violence in the south east is likely to continue. PKK and suspected PKK attacks between 22 July and 2 August have affected multiple southern provinces between Adana and Van raising the ire of the government, which is likely to respond in kind. The ceasefire, agreed to in 2013, has failed and a new period of negotiation will be required to end the fighting. However, no such talks are currently planned and are unlikely until the AKP secures a ruling coalition or announces a new national election (and then emerges in a position to create a new AKP-dominated government).

PKK forces in northern Iraq are also coming under severe strain. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is placing pressure on the PKK to leave the territory out of concern that the Turkish air strikes may cause an increasing number of casualties among the local Iraqi Kurd population. This is a change from previous periods when the KRG may have sought to remain neutral. Times have changed and the KRG's ties with the Turkish government have improved as it has, quite rightly, made the assessment that if it wishes to pursue statehood it will require Turkey's buy-in. Should PKK forces be forced out of Iraq, the potential of internecine Kurd violence in Iraq will increase as will PKK clashes with the Turkish military forces in south eastern Turkey. At a minimum, violence will escalate in the coming weeks and may then decrease if the AKP comes to power or escalate if no political solution is found between political groupings in Turkey regarding a ruling coalition or if no solution is found between the government and the PKK.