Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Libya's split


 

 

Operation Dignity

 

 

Operation Dawn

 

Loyal to the House of Representatives and Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani.

 

 

Loyal to the General National Congress and Prime Minister Omar al-Hasi.

 

Centre of power is in Tobruk.

 

Centre of power is in Tripoli and Misratah.

 

 

Nationalist forces, federalists, eastern tribes and Libyan Army

 

 

Islamists forces loyal to the city of Misratah.

 

Supported by Egypt and Qatar.

 

 

Supported by Qatar, Turkey and Sudan.

 

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Kobani, Syria

Great AFP picture showing IS militants atop a strategic hill top near Kobani in Syria


Saturday, October 4, 2014

Egypt - Then and now

April 2013 - El-Sisi and his boss, Mursi. Chuck Hagel uncomfortably in the middle.



One year later, Mursi is in jail and El-Sisi occupies the president's chair. Kerry is the new uncomfortable guest.


Kobani

Here we go. Kobani. The embattled enclave. Kurds, poorly armed, fighting off a superior enemy. Refugees pouring into Turkey and volunteers pouring in to shore up the defences. This narrative has been presented to the world and has (sort of) caught our imagination. The Islamic State have laid siege to the town for a number of weeks and have pushed to within 1 km of the town. There appears little the Kurdish YPG force can do. The Western powers have resisted a large scale air strike against IS forces near Kobani and it appears they are ready to see it fall. This position is likely premised on two broad motivations. One, if Kobani falls Turkey may be drawn into the fighting. This is something NATO and the US want. Two, Kobani holds no real strategic value. IS already control much of the border in the north and they do not fear attacks from the Kurds.  The next 24 hours should tell us much about how much the US and Turkey love the Kurds.