The attack on Tower 22 in Jordan this last weekend by Iran-aligned militia must be seen as a 'red line' by the Biden administration. An attack that can not go unresponded to. Indeed, Biden has warned that a response is coming. As of Feb. 1, we have not seen any action. Yet, action is highly likely. What form it takes is another question.
It is unlikely that the US will conduct any direct attack on Iranian territory. To do so, would escalate beyond what the US government would find acceptable. In turn, Iran would be required to escalate as well. My sense is they will target an Iranian or Iranian adjacent interest in one of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. Syria is the most likely target. The Syrian regime hasn't the capability to respond and the country hosts IRGC forces. Israel regularly attacks IRGC and Hezbollah interests in this country. Finding a target that will adequately measure the attack on Tower 22, assuage the thirst for retaliation among the US and its allies and meet the US public's expectations for an adequate response will be key.
We wait and see.
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