ISIL VBIED and city assault waves

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a Sunni extremist grouping operational in Syria and Iraq, has escalated attacks in Iraq since 5 June. The assaults began when dozens of ISIL militants launched an assault in Samarra in an apparent attempt to gain access to the al-Askari Shrine, a prominent Shiite religious site. The incursion led to ISIL's brief capture of parts of the city before they were repulsed by a military counter-attack. Mop up operations continue to be reported but for the most the government has retaken control of the town. A day later, on 6 June, ISIL militants infiltrated the Right Coast of Mosul (western Mosul) and took control of a number of city districts and prominent local landmarks, including a hotel and university. The clashes, which are ongoing as of 9 June, have left dozens of people dead. These assaults have been interspersed with numerous high profile/mass casualty bombings in Diyala, Baghdad and Salah ad Din governorate. The worst wave of attacks occurred in Baghdad on Saturday when at least 12 bombs were detonated in mainly Shiite districts killing over 60 people. The assault waves are particularly worrying for the government, which is continuing to regain control of Fallujah, where ISIL and others remain the dominant forces, and fight off repeated ISIL attacks into Ramadi. For all attempts and purposes Iraq is in a state of civil war and the momentum, at present, appears to be on the side of the militants. This wearing down of the Iraqi government through bombings and city assaults will have an impact over the near-term if something does not change. The potential for further territory losses is high while the threat of a sectarian war is increasing and will likely reach the tipping point of ISIL conduct a successful attack on a major religious site, such as the al-Askari Shrine.