(Pictured: Al-Qassam Brigades member - the group withdrew from a 2009 ceasefire with Israel, on 19 August)
The probability of a full scale conflict between Hamas and Israel is becoming an increasingly likely scenario as tensions continue to escalate between the two sides. Following Thursday's militant attacks near Eilat, the Israeli government took the knee-jerk reaction of blaming 'Gazans' (ie Hamas) for the attack, without considering the possibility that a third party, operating independently of Islamist/Palestinian extremist networks in the Gaza Strip (ie in the Sinai), may have orchestrated the worst terrorist incident in Israel since 2008. Israeli intelligence and logic aside, the IAF has since been given the green light to target militant positions, particularly those of the Palestinian Resistance Committee (PRC), in the Gaza area. Since operations began on Thursday night at least 30 people have been killed in IAF strikes, including the head of the PRC. Hamas targets have also been destroyed, which in turn has resulted in Hamas and its armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades suspending a long standing ceasefire with Israel, which was in place since 2009.
The situation as of Saturday night has become dire. Hamas rockets are raining down on southern Israel, some as far as 40km from the Strip. At least one projectile struck the Southern District capital, Beersheba, on Saturday evening killing one man. This rocket barrage, Hamas' lifting of the ceasefire and the traditional response of the IDF/IAF to militant attacks is likely to result in a further escalation without an immediate intervention from one if not all members of the Quartet. Inside the Middle East will be watching developments closely through the weekend for signs of further escalation, such as an IDF cross border raid, Hamas terror attack in Israel or high level rocket barrage from the Gaza area. We will also be watching the reaction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. If the war escalates may they consider entering the fray? Trying times ahead indeed.
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