Special Arab Spring report

Morocco

Largely stable now following a successful constitutional referendum in early July supported by 98% of the population. Minor protests still occur; however, the overall situation has improved markedly for the regime and its business as usual.

Algeria

One of the first countries in the region to feel the impact of the Arab Spring, Algeria has worked decisively to stamp out protests. Using its oil and gas income it successfully lowered commodity prices (a key demand of protesters). The political opposition, which has traditionally been weak and divided, was unable to gain any momentum out of the initial protests. No significant protests have been held since early 2011.

Tunisia

The country is due to hold National Assembly elections in October. This will be a key test for the state. While major protests ceased in January following Ali's resignation and exile sporadic protests continue to be reported. The poll remains a key trigger point.

Libya

The country remains split between Tripoli and Benghazi. Rebels and al-Gaddafi forces still face off in a number of areas of the country; however, no decisive conflict development is expected until after Ramadan. Rebels also remain inexperienced and lack armour - key ingredients in any modern conflict.

Egypt

Elections are expected to be held in October and November; while these may placate some political groupings it will not solve the fundamental economic and social problems prevalent in the country. Sky rocketing food prices, a growing population and massive youth unemployment are key triggers for future unrest. What Egypt requires now is a Marshall Plan.

Israel

While technically not an Arab state, the country has still experienced an upswing in cost of living protests since late July. The demonstrations are gaining momentum and its anyone's guess where these will go if the government does not meet the people's demands. However, unlike the rest of the region the country is unlikely to fall into mass turmoil. Government's may fall in the short-term.

Jordan

Friday protests occur regularly. These remain small and are unlikely to grow in size at the moment. The king has taken some steps to meet the demands of political reform. While the protests are small opposition to the regime is growing and one gets the nagging sense that Jordan's problems have only just begun. The country remains heavily reliant on foreign aid and the goodwill shown towards the king by the majority of Jordanians. Should aid somehow be withdrawn or attitudes towards the king take a dramatic hit, Jordan may well have a Revolution Spring.

Syria

The al-Assad regime is close to the end now. If protesters can maintain their protest movement (which seems likely as the security forces continue to kill hundreds every week) anti-government sentiment will continue to grow and fester into armed rebellion. Once UN sanctions kick in the ability of the Syrian government to overcome the protesters will reduce. Without an Assad resignation one does not see the unrest ending any time soon.

Iran

The country's massive security force apparatus has successfully quashed all dissent. Without support of the majority of the country the Green Movement (anti-government group composed of largely middle class and urban Iranians) is unlikely to make much headway. Key trigger points for regime instability are 1. unrest in rural areas 2. protests by state workers. The regime may also shoot itself in the foot by initiating conflict with the West or Israel or splitting internally.

Bahrain

Parliamentary by-elections are due in September. Should al-Wefaq, the leading Shiite political grouping, not participate the country is likely to continue to experience unrest well into 2012. Should they join, the outlook will be positive; however, the grouping would also need to rejoin the National Dialogue. Wefaq pulled out of the talks a few weeks back citing the governments failure to meet its key demands, which are basically a greater devolution of power to an elected assembly. At present one does not see the Sunni minority giving up power to its traditional rival, the Shiite majority.

Yemen

This basket case of a state is heading towards schism. Rebellion in the north, secessionist conflict in the south, Islamist extremists declaring Islamic states in the east, water and oil shortages, restless tribes, weak central government, piracy off the coast (Socotra is now considered a pirate refuge) - factors that point to one inevitable conclusion - state failure. Perhaps a GCC intervention can save the day; however, it is likely that in 2012 or 2013 the state will split in some way or a Somalia type situation will emerge.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iraq*

These states were largely unaffected by the recent Arab Spring; however, sporadic protests were still reported. The massive oil revenues have largely offset desires for political reform...for the moment. Should the oil price drop we are likely to witness massive social upheavals. Proactive political reform and economic diversification in the next five years will offset many future problems.

*Iraq - remains a special case. It has been in the grips of a conflict for a number of years and the issues there are largely unconnected to the Arab Spring movements elsewhere in the country.