Just the beginning

It may appear that Arab Spring 2011 is coming to a restless end; however, there are a number of factors that lead me to think that this is just the beginning.

1. Ramadan - the holy month is coming to an end. More people will be available to protest shortly.

2. Goals - Regime change has only occurred (sort of) in one country -> Libya. The goals of protesters are yet to be fully met in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen etc.

3. Social inequality - The primary driver of the unrest in the Middle East in 2011 was social inequality - poverty, unemployment, a growing gap between rich and poor. These macro social and economic problems are grinding ahead unabated. As more people become poor, they will become angrier and begin to vent.

4. Israeli/Palestinian conflict - This issue has played in the background for a while. If the UN vote in September fails to recognise the Palestinian state, trouble could brew, particularly for states close to Israel (Jordan) and the US (Egypt, Saudi, Gulf states), which is expected to veto the Palestinian application for statehood.

So there you have it. I certainly expect trouble to continue to brew in the region through 2012 and probably beyond. Solutions are few and far between at the moment.