The Bahrain hot potato - juggling expectations in the Persian Gulf

With a population of just over 1 million people Bahrain is a speck within the larger Middle East region. Despite its size it has dominated regional and, at times, international headlines due to ongoing agitation by its significant Shiite majority for greater political freedoms from the Sunni monarchy. In a short excerpt below red24 analyst, Andre Colling, summarises events in the country this year and what we have to look forward to in the coming months. The full MENA brief will appear on red24s website shortly.

In February, mainly Shiite political opposition forces initiated major pro-reform protests across Bahrain. The protests, which centred on the Pearl Roundabout in Manama, escalated on 17 February when the security forces used live rounds against protesters killing a number of people. The action served to exacerbate and escalate the unrest and calls for reform were largely replaced with calls for the overthrow of the minority Sunni-led government of King Hamad al-Khalifa. The unrest continued daily after the February events until mid-March when Bahrain requested foreign assistance to stem the protests and protect government assets. In line with the request, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) mandated a large Saudi Arabian military (1,000 soldiers and armour) and UAE police force (500 officers) to deploy to the country. The regime also initiated a state of emergency and banned all public gatherings. The measures effectively ended the protests, including those at the Pearl Roundabout.

Small and sporadic protests continued in outlying areas of the country and began to escalate once again after the state of emergency was lifted on 1 June. The regime has subsequently called for and continues to hold a National Dialogue and a parliamentary by-election on 24 September. Arguably the largest Shiite grouping, al-Wefaq, has withdrawn from the dialogue process and refuses to participate in the upcoming election (the election was called after al-Wefaq withdrew from the government in February) until reforms are initiated.

The unrest in Bahrain is set to continue until Shiites rejoin the political process, and may well escalate should the government continue to stall on granting a greater devolution of power to a democratically elected legislature. The political outlook for Bahrain is largely negative as the Khalifa family is unlikely to weaken their position by granting greater rights to what would effectively become a Shiite dominated parliament.