Tel Aviv "terror" - Ramming attacks in Israel (JPost)

Background: Ramming terror attacks in recent years

By JPOST.COM STAFF, YAAKOV LAPPIN, ETGAR LEFKOVIT

08/29/2011 05:04

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=235810

South Tel Aviv attack is 5th of its kind in past three years, including "Nakba Day" attack, "Jerusalem bulldozer attacks." Seven people were injured in south Tel Aviv early Monday morning, after a terrorist from the West Bank carjacked a taxi and rammed it into a police road block protecting a Tel Aviv nightclub, before going on a stabbing spree. Monday's attack comes after a similar attack in May on Nakba Day when a young truck driver from the Arab town of Kafr Kasim caused terrifying destruction in south Tel Aviv after ramming his truck into several vehicles on Bar-Lev Street, in what police suspected to be a “lonewolf terror attack” that killed one man and injured 17 others. The 20-ton Volvo truck, driven by the 22-year-old man, departed Kafr Kasim on the morning of the attack and entered Tel Aviv via Route 4, driving through the Mesubim Junction. As the driver approached the Hatikva neighborhood, he struck and ran over several cars. The truck driver continued on, smashing into a black jeep, a white Fiat car, flattening a road sign, and striking other vehicles, before suddenly swerving into the opposite lane, running over a moped – seconds after its driver leapt off – then finally smashing sideways into an Egged bus, that just dropped off its last passenger.

The attacks are also reminiscent of the so-called "Jerusalem bulldozer attacks" three years ago that started on July 2 2008 when terrorist Husam Taysir Dwayat carried out a lethal bulldozer rampage on Jaffa Road which killed three people and wounded dozens before he was killed. Three weeks later, tractor driver Ghassan Abu Tir, a 22-year-old resident of the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Umm Tuba who was working on a construction project on a side street near the King David Hotel, pulled into King David Street and repeatedly crashed his vehicle into a No. 13 Egged bus, which managed to escape, and then rammed into five cars, one of which he overturned, before being shot dead by a motorist who happened by the scene. 15 people were wounded in the attack. Two months later, east Jerusalem resident Kasem Mugrabi drove his BMW into a a crowd in Jerusalem's Tzahal Sqare near the Old City. 17 people were wounded, most of them soldiers, before he was shot dead by an IDF officer.

Fasting ends - protests set to begin

Ramadan comes to a close on Tue/Wed. There are growing expectations that anti-government protests will re-escalate in many areas of the Middle East and North Africa as Muslims can re-energise during the day. But exactly where will the unrest kickoff? Syria, Bahrain and Yemen have experienced relatively stable and high levels of protests during Ramadan and in many other areas, such as Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq the political situation has normalised following government action. Of particular interest will be Egypt. Many of its movements openly suspended Ramadan protesting. It is highly likely that these group will restart later this week, possibly as early as Friday. Start your engines.

The Night of Power

Muslims across the world will commemorate the Night of Power or Laylat al-Qadr tonight. It is widely beleived that this is the night that the Angel Gabriel revealed the Holy Quran to the Prophet Muhammad. The Quran purportedly states that the night is better than a thousand months. For fundamentalists and extremists the occassion is (incorrectly) believed to increase the browny points you receive in the after life if you martyr yourself. Keep an eye on Middle Eastern states and US Embassies tonight.

The wild west: loyalists continue to battle the rebels in Libya

Tripoli remains in the grip of fighting between loyalists and rebels. While gains have been made the continued fighting speaks to the significant support al-Gaddafi still has, particularly in Tripoli. The support has also been revealed as coming from locals and .. foreign mercenaries. The discovery of 30 bodies, clearly African, has highlighted the role these mercenaries have played in the battle for Libya. One wonders how many more of these fighters remain in the country.

On the diplomatic front the rebel NTC have stated that they plan to relocate to Tripoli shortly while the US has announced that $1.5 billion will be released to fund humanitarian operations in Libya. The rebels are certainly on the front foot and will look to capture or kill Gaddafi as soon as possible, so that the shadow of 40 years of dictatorship can finally be eradicated. However, even if they were to capture the tyrant and eradicate his loyalist and mercenary force questions still need to be answered as to whether the NTC can unify the diverse rebel factions and include the power tribes in the interim government.

Just the beginning

It may appear that Arab Spring 2011 is coming to a restless end; however, there are a number of factors that lead me to think that this is just the beginning.

1. Ramadan - the holy month is coming to an end. More people will be available to protest shortly.

2. Goals - Regime change has only occurred (sort of) in one country -> Libya. The goals of protesters are yet to be fully met in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen etc.

3. Social inequality - The primary driver of the unrest in the Middle East in 2011 was social inequality - poverty, unemployment, a growing gap between rich and poor. These macro social and economic problems are grinding ahead unabated. As more people become poor, they will become angrier and begin to vent.

4. Israeli/Palestinian conflict - This issue has played in the background for a while. If the UN vote in September fails to recognise the Palestinian state, trouble could brew, particularly for states close to Israel (Jordan) and the US (Egypt, Saudi, Gulf states), which is expected to veto the Palestinian application for statehood.

So there you have it. I certainly expect trouble to continue to brew in the region through 2012 and probably beyond. Solutions are few and far between at the moment.

The rebel gamble - brazen assault in Tripoli

A major rebel gamble has begun in Libya's capital, Tripoli. Overnight fighting was reported across the city as rebel supporters skirmished with forces loyal to the regime. While information still remains sketchy it is believed that the rebels are focusing their attention on the Tajoura neighborhood and the Matiga airport. Rebels claim to have infiltrated the city on Friday via tugboats, resupplying their supporters in Tripoli. At this stage the regime are remaining defiant claiming to have, in Gaddafi's words, eliminated the 'rats'. Again this piece of information can not be verified. What is verifiable is that fighting is ongoing and their are a high number of casualties. The crucial question at this juncture is 1. Does Gaddafi maintain significant support in Tripoli to quash the latest uprising. 2. Can the rebels capture or kill Gaddafi before their supply of ammunition is depleted. A large number of Gaddafi forces remain outside of the capital. Should these forces turn back to the capital, the rebel mini-offensive could be under threat...however, even if additional forces were to be moved from the front line, Gaddafi would lose significant territory as rebels are likely to push against any weakened areas. We continue to watch with interest.

War edges closer to the Levant

(Pictured: Al-Qassam Brigades member - the group withdrew from a 2009 ceasefire with Israel, on 19 August)

The probability of a full scale conflict between Hamas and Israel is becoming an increasingly likely scenario as tensions continue to escalate between the two sides. Following Thursday's militant attacks near Eilat, the Israeli government took the knee-jerk reaction of blaming 'Gazans' (ie Hamas) for the attack, without considering the possibility that a third party, operating independently of Islamist/Palestinian extremist networks in the Gaza Strip (ie in the Sinai), may have orchestrated the worst terrorist incident in Israel since 2008. Israeli intelligence and logic aside, the IAF has since been given the green light to target militant positions, particularly those of the Palestinian Resistance Committee (PRC), in the Gaza area. Since operations began on Thursday night at least 30 people have been killed in IAF strikes, including the head of the PRC. Hamas targets have also been destroyed, which in turn has resulted in Hamas and its armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades suspending a long standing ceasefire with Israel, which was in place since 2009.

The situation as of Saturday night has become dire. Hamas rockets are raining down on southern Israel, some as far as 40km from the Strip. At least one projectile struck the Southern District capital, Beersheba, on Saturday evening killing one man. This rocket barrage, Hamas' lifting of the ceasefire and the traditional response of the IDF/IAF to militant attacks is likely to result in a further escalation without an immediate intervention from one if not all members of the Quartet. Inside the Middle East will be watching developments closely through the weekend for signs of further escalation, such as an IDF cross border raid, Hamas terror attack in Israel or high level rocket barrage from the Gaza area. We will also be watching the reaction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. If the war escalates may they consider entering the fray? Trying times ahead indeed.

Austerity measures and social unrest - links?

An interesting article that explores the links between austerity measures and social unrest. An excerpt:

The frequency of demonstrations, assassinations, and general strikes rises monotonically with the scale of cuts. Only in the case of riots is there a small decline for the biggest cut-backs. In the case of demonstrations, the frequency of incidents appears to rise particularly fast as expenditure cuts pass the 3% threshold.

Full article - http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/file/DP8513.pdf

Reality of the state of perpetual war

On Thursday Palestinian extremists/freedom fighters carried out attacks against buses and private vehicles along Route 12 in southern Israel and fought brief gun battles with local military forces. By the end of the day 8 people were dead and 30 more wounded. The attack was the worst in recent times in Israel. The government responded strongly carrying out air attacks against Hamas installations in the Gaza Strip killing a number of people. Israeli military attacks along the shared border also mistakenly killed 5 Egyptian soldiers.

If it wasn't clear before it should be crystal clear now. Israel remains in a permanent state of readiness for war. Talk of negotiations and of improving security are secondary to the realities the country faces. Along its western border an enclave packed with militants ready to take advantage of any perceived weakness to strike at Israel, further west an Egyptian state that is losing its ability to control Islamist militants in the Sinai and on its northern border - uncertainty in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon are weighing heavily on Israeli military planners and strategists. People who criticize Israel's disproportionate response to attacks on its soil should take these factors into account. On the other side of the coin, persons who back Israel should also consider the pain the Jewish state has inflicted on its Palestinian and Arab neighbours - settlement expansion in Palestinian areas, high level assassinations, mass arrests, sieges of communities etc etc. One only hopes that the current cycle of violence will be met at some point by statesmanship on both sides, perhaps even a willingness to negotiate a peaceful end to the madness of perpetual war. Yet, when both sides are committed to eradicating the other one can be forgiven for thinking negatively.

Flash: Kidnapping still big business in Afghanistan

The following information is an excerpt of an alert compiled by red24's Central Asian Risk Analyst, Ryan Cummings. Editorial amendments included.

Afghan security forces freed two Turk nationals on Tuesday in the Jowzan province from their Taleban captors. The pair, along with another Turkish national and two Afghan locals were seized by a group of unidentified militants on 28 June 2011. However, due to poor health, one of the Turkish engineers was released soon after his capture, while the Afghan nationals were similarly freed after their families paid a ransom estimated to be around USD 17,000 each. An alleged ransom of USD530, 000 was demanded for the release of the two Turkish nationals.

While major battles and suicide car bombings make world headlines the criminal under current in Afghanistan continues to flourish. Buoyed by massive ransom hauls criminal and insurgent gangs have made millions of dollars in recent years. Foreigners remain the most sort after captive as kidnappers can usually receive 10 to 15 times or more compared to ransoms for local nationals. Indeed as many as 30 foreigners have been reported kidnapped in the past five years while the real figure is probably five times that. With kidnapping being such big business in Afghanistan it appears that private security business will also remain a major foreign income earner in the country for some time to come.

The Bahrain hot potato - juggling expectations in the Persian Gulf

With a population of just over 1 million people Bahrain is a speck within the larger Middle East region. Despite its size it has dominated regional and, at times, international headlines due to ongoing agitation by its significant Shiite majority for greater political freedoms from the Sunni monarchy. In a short excerpt below red24 analyst, Andre Colling, summarises events in the country this year and what we have to look forward to in the coming months. The full MENA brief will appear on red24s website shortly.

In February, mainly Shiite political opposition forces initiated major pro-reform protests across Bahrain. The protests, which centred on the Pearl Roundabout in Manama, escalated on 17 February when the security forces used live rounds against protesters killing a number of people. The action served to exacerbate and escalate the unrest and calls for reform were largely replaced with calls for the overthrow of the minority Sunni-led government of King Hamad al-Khalifa. The unrest continued daily after the February events until mid-March when Bahrain requested foreign assistance to stem the protests and protect government assets. In line with the request, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) mandated a large Saudi Arabian military (1,000 soldiers and armour) and UAE police force (500 officers) to deploy to the country. The regime also initiated a state of emergency and banned all public gatherings. The measures effectively ended the protests, including those at the Pearl Roundabout.

Small and sporadic protests continued in outlying areas of the country and began to escalate once again after the state of emergency was lifted on 1 June. The regime has subsequently called for and continues to hold a National Dialogue and a parliamentary by-election on 24 September. Arguably the largest Shiite grouping, al-Wefaq, has withdrawn from the dialogue process and refuses to participate in the upcoming election (the election was called after al-Wefaq withdrew from the government in February) until reforms are initiated.

The unrest in Bahrain is set to continue until Shiites rejoin the political process, and may well escalate should the government continue to stall on granting a greater devolution of power to a democratically elected legislature. The political outlook for Bahrain is largely negative as the Khalifa family is unlikely to weaken their position by granting greater rights to what would effectively become a Shiite dominated parliament.

Special Arab Spring report

Morocco

Largely stable now following a successful constitutional referendum in early July supported by 98% of the population. Minor protests still occur; however, the overall situation has improved markedly for the regime and its business as usual.

Algeria

One of the first countries in the region to feel the impact of the Arab Spring, Algeria has worked decisively to stamp out protests. Using its oil and gas income it successfully lowered commodity prices (a key demand of protesters). The political opposition, which has traditionally been weak and divided, was unable to gain any momentum out of the initial protests. No significant protests have been held since early 2011.

Tunisia

The country is due to hold National Assembly elections in October. This will be a key test for the state. While major protests ceased in January following Ali's resignation and exile sporadic protests continue to be reported. The poll remains a key trigger point.

Libya

The country remains split between Tripoli and Benghazi. Rebels and al-Gaddafi forces still face off in a number of areas of the country; however, no decisive conflict development is expected until after Ramadan. Rebels also remain inexperienced and lack armour - key ingredients in any modern conflict.

Egypt

Elections are expected to be held in October and November; while these may placate some political groupings it will not solve the fundamental economic and social problems prevalent in the country. Sky rocketing food prices, a growing population and massive youth unemployment are key triggers for future unrest. What Egypt requires now is a Marshall Plan.

Israel

While technically not an Arab state, the country has still experienced an upswing in cost of living protests since late July. The demonstrations are gaining momentum and its anyone's guess where these will go if the government does not meet the people's demands. However, unlike the rest of the region the country is unlikely to fall into mass turmoil. Government's may fall in the short-term.

Jordan

Friday protests occur regularly. These remain small and are unlikely to grow in size at the moment. The king has taken some steps to meet the demands of political reform. While the protests are small opposition to the regime is growing and one gets the nagging sense that Jordan's problems have only just begun. The country remains heavily reliant on foreign aid and the goodwill shown towards the king by the majority of Jordanians. Should aid somehow be withdrawn or attitudes towards the king take a dramatic hit, Jordan may well have a Revolution Spring.

Syria

The al-Assad regime is close to the end now. If protesters can maintain their protest movement (which seems likely as the security forces continue to kill hundreds every week) anti-government sentiment will continue to grow and fester into armed rebellion. Once UN sanctions kick in the ability of the Syrian government to overcome the protesters will reduce. Without an Assad resignation one does not see the unrest ending any time soon.

Iran

The country's massive security force apparatus has successfully quashed all dissent. Without support of the majority of the country the Green Movement (anti-government group composed of largely middle class and urban Iranians) is unlikely to make much headway. Key trigger points for regime instability are 1. unrest in rural areas 2. protests by state workers. The regime may also shoot itself in the foot by initiating conflict with the West or Israel or splitting internally.

Bahrain

Parliamentary by-elections are due in September. Should al-Wefaq, the leading Shiite political grouping, not participate the country is likely to continue to experience unrest well into 2012. Should they join, the outlook will be positive; however, the grouping would also need to rejoin the National Dialogue. Wefaq pulled out of the talks a few weeks back citing the governments failure to meet its key demands, which are basically a greater devolution of power to an elected assembly. At present one does not see the Sunni minority giving up power to its traditional rival, the Shiite majority.

Yemen

This basket case of a state is heading towards schism. Rebellion in the north, secessionist conflict in the south, Islamist extremists declaring Islamic states in the east, water and oil shortages, restless tribes, weak central government, piracy off the coast (Socotra is now considered a pirate refuge) - factors that point to one inevitable conclusion - state failure. Perhaps a GCC intervention can save the day; however, it is likely that in 2012 or 2013 the state will split in some way or a Somalia type situation will emerge.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iraq*

These states were largely unaffected by the recent Arab Spring; however, sporadic protests were still reported. The massive oil revenues have largely offset desires for political reform...for the moment. Should the oil price drop we are likely to witness massive social upheavals. Proactive political reform and economic diversification in the next five years will offset many future problems.

*Iraq - remains a special case. It has been in the grips of a conflict for a number of years and the issues there are largely unconnected to the Arab Spring movements elsewhere in the country.