The Islamic State

On 29 June, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) issued a statement indicating the formation of a new Islamic caliphate in Syria and Iraq under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The declaration also included references to its new name, the Islamic State (IS). The announcement by the group (https://ia902501.us.archive.org/2/items/hym3_22aw/english.pdf) is controversial as it is not expected to be accepted by the multiple opposing Sunni non-state armed groups in either Syria or Iraq. Already nine groups in Syria, including the Islamic Front, have come out in rejection of the declaration while Al-Nusra Front figures have also labelled the declaration as being un-Islamic. It is not clear why al-Baghdadi decided to declare the caliphate at this time; however, the group's recent victories in northern Iraq and its capture of vast quantities of Iraqi military hardware may go some way to understanding the group's current confidence and bravado.

IS has staged a remarkable comeback since 2011 when the group appeared to be on its last legs. The withdrawal of the US military from Iraq signalled the start of its resurgence as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were largely unable, due to intelligence failures and lack of motivation, to combat the groups rise. Under al-Baghdadi, the group, then known as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and later renamed ISIL, restructured and regrouped. Two successive year long offensive in 2012 to 2014 revitalised the group as it attacked and freed hundreds of hardened militants from Iraqi jails. The group also actively recruited from among the depressed Sunni youth and has become a beacon for foreign fighters aiming to establish an Islamist caliphate in the region. The year-long offensives also seriously eroded the Iraq military and police. These operations combined with growing Sunni resentment of the Shiite-dominated government created conditions wherein it could break out and take Fallujah in January 2014 and Mosul on 10 June.

The group has been the focus of counter-terrorism debate, within and outside of Iraq. Also known as "Daash" by Iraqis, it has borne the brunt of the political rhetoric emanating from the government. Yet, the group is not the only armed group operating in the country. Indeed, there are multiple groups, including Sunni and Sufi Islamist extremists, Baathists and tribal militia, which have risen with IS over the past three years. Indeed, of late the elevated levels of violence in Iraq have been described by many locals as a Sunni Revolution and not a straightforward capture of territory by one armed group against another.

Thus, we come to the caliphate decision. No doubt the decision to declare a caliphate must have been one that had been on the table for a length of time and would, reasonably, have been made following a full consideration of what the side effects would be. Yet, the imposition of an Islamic state where none exists at present is not new. Indeed, the previous ISIL was, in essence, the creation of a set boundary wherein Islamic law was practiced and enforced. What makes the current declaration different is that they have called for near total allegiance from civilians and armed groups to al-Baghdadi without consultation from the primary fighting groups.

Perhaps IS have calculated that they are strong enough to counter the storm? Perhaps there victories in Iraq have filled the leaderships minds with misconceptions about their strength and capability? Perhaps the declaration is the start of an era of Islamic rule in the region. I think that this will be short lived. Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq will not allow a state like this to exist. It threatens them existentially. The US and Israel, the two powerhouses of the region, are also unlikely to allow the establishment of a radical government in Iraq and Syria. The IS's decision to form a state will also place them firmly within the targets of their rivals, particularly those groups that have declared loyalty to al-Qaeda, a group IS now seems to want to replace as the pinnacle Islamist militant group. IS will continue to grow and may succeed in holding territory but holding, administering services and ruling is another thing completely.