Syria playing off the front foot

Bashar al-Assad, the dictator, the enemy of the people, the soon to be overthrown, now appears to be in the ascendancy in Syria. The Syrian military, supported by Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and a new militia force, have beaten back rebel advances in Damascus, Aleppo, Daraa and Homs recently and threaten to overrun rebel areas thought to be secure, including the city of Aleppo. This new positivity on behalf of the regime is a result of a few overarching factors. Firstly, the opposition is split and their vision for the future is clouded. The rebellion is made up of nationalists, Sunni moderates and extremists, men defending their hometowns, criminals, foreign fighters and Syrian military defectors. Secondly, supplies are a worry. The rebels just don't have the equipment to challenge the Syrian government's heavy weapons and aircraft. As much as they'd like to launch a major offensive, they can't due to the massive casualties they would experience if they did. The Syrian's international backers are also unsure about whether to supply them with the necessary material for fear that it falls into the hands of the extremists. Thirdly, the Syrian regime has restructured, resupplied and re-orientated towards a guerilla style conflict. It has transformed part of its armed force into a militia-type body that is able to block rebel advances in urban areas. It also continues to receive supplies from abroad, namely from Russia and Iran. Critically, its core forces remain loyal. Be it the brutality of the rebels or their good discipline and training, many Syrian units continue to hold out against overwhelming odds. An international conference is due to be held in June and we can expect, therefore, that the Syrian regime will aim to make as much ground as possible before that meeting to improve their bargaining position with the rebels. Watch this space.