Lebanon at the cross-roads, again

Lebanon's delicate political balance between two equally strong opposing blocs, the March 8 and March 14 coalitions, continues to be affected by the ongoing fighting in neighbouring Syria. The March 8 bloc is led by the Shiite Muslim Amal and Hezbollah movements and Christian Maronites. The March 14 is led by the Future Movement, a largely Sunni grouping. The war in Syria is, effectively, one between the Alawite-dominated regime (Alawites are closely linked to Shiites) and the predominantly Sunni Muslim rebellion. Shiites and Sunnis in Lebanon are generally supportive of their brethren in Syria. Developments there, therefore, impact on the Lebanese political system. Further complicating the situation in Lebanon, extremist elements within each general bloc are increasing agitation the longer the war in Syria continues. Salafist Sunnis (ultra conservatives essentially) have increased anti-Shiite protest activity in Sidon and Tripoli. In the latter city, violence between Sunni and Alawite gunmen has also recently been reported. In the country's restive border regions with Syria clashes between Shiite clans and the local security forces and conflict spillover (kidnapping, shooting and armed incursions) have further undermined the security environment.

Within this context the Lebanese government is attempting to organise elections on 16 June. The competition between the two major blocs has made this an almost impossible task and the mandate of the current parliament is expected to be extended as both sides struggle to agree on a new electoral law and cabinet. Peaceful elections are key for Lebanon but are unlikely to resolve long-seated differences and disputes. Two possible outcomes of the elections are possible. Under both scenarios the picture painted for Lebanon is negative. If Hezbollah aligned parties win Sunni agitators will increase protest activity. If the March 14 dominate Hezbollah may activate its militia to secure a veto in any future cabinet. One gets the sense that the only real path towards stability is if Hezbollah disarms, either through military defeat or otherwise, and if the war in Syria ends. Until this happens Lebanon will be considered a high risk operating area.