Lebanon and its relationship with Hezbollah, Iran and Syria

Lebanon's weak political institutions and military make the country susceptible to instability in Syria. This premise has been proven over and over again since the end of the civil war in the 1990s and is no more evident now than at any other time in its history. Political parties in Lebanon are split for their support of the Syrian regime. Indeed, one of the primary political groupings in the country, Hezbollah, is actively supporting the Assad regime with men and material. So, what can be done about this state of affairs? Can Lebanon ever escape its cycle of stability and instability and its sponge-like sensitivity to regional developments? Yes and no. 

If Hezbollah renounces violence and disbands its militia, the country has a chance. At the moment Hezbollah maintain a ten thousand strong militia force, which acts outside of the bounds of the legitimate security forces. If this militia can be integrated into the legitimate security forces and 're-orientated' towards national interests the country would have a significant defensive platform from which to stabilise its domestic security environment. This would, however, take a massive amount of 'backbone' to achieve. Hezbollah would also need to redefine its core reason for existence, which is to resist Israeli aggression. 

Hezbollah's pre-occupation with Israel appears odd. Formed to resist Israeli occupation of southern Israel the group continues to operate an armed wing, despite Israel withdrawing from southern Lebanon in 2000. At present there are one or two areas where control of territory is disputed, but this is certainly insufficient reason to continue armed struggle. To understand why its current goals remain unchanged one needs to look at Iran and Syria. These two countries supply Hezbollah and finance its activities. Iran hates Israel and wants it destroyed and Syria wants the Golan Heights back, a strategic elevated region, which dominates all approaches to northern Israel and southwestern Syria. So, for Hezbollah to back off and demilitarize it would require the Syrian and Iranian pressure to disappear. This may yet happen should the rebels overthrow the Syria regime and if a new political movement emerged in Iran. The Syrian war is still raging of course and the result is on a knife edge. Iran on the other hand is heading to the polls to select a new president. If a moderate is installed (Ahmadinejad is definitely out, having maxed out his number of terms) the relationship with Israel and, therefore, Hezbollah, could be redefined. We wait and see and in the meantime more people will die in Syria and uncertainty over Lebanon's future will persist.