Risk analysis remains a field divided. There is no single method of measuring risk. There are many indicators, but the most successful and least controversial remains the subjective approach. One based on evidence and then presenting possible scenarios. Ive put a few down below focusing on terrorism and politics.
Terrorism:
Current status
We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)
There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.
This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.
The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.
The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)
On that occasion___.
OR / AND The most recent threat received from a terror group.
Modus Operandi & Area of operation
The most high risk regions are__. The safer regions are_____
Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)
The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)
Analysis
We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___ Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents
Personal response
What you can do-general security advice.
Politics:
Historical context
Main political players, current government
Government policies, policy direction
Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology
Threat to stability?
Internal - external Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence
Response to the threat.
Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc
Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security.
Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.
Civil unrest (Element of political)
Incidence of civil unrest are regularly/periodically reported in (country). Most incidence take the form of peaceful demonstrations/mass rallies/marches/riots/clashes with police/strikes in response to domestic issues/regional issues/international issues/random. Civil gatherings are usually peaceful/Civil gatherings turn violent on occasion with little warning. These usually occur in major cities (capital etc)/rural areas/outlying areas etc. and affect travellers in terms of delays/do not overly affect travel itenaries/have a direct impact on travellers safety (Special note). Avoid them etc + (link)
Terrorism:
Current status
We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)
There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.
This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.
The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.
The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)
On that occasion___.
OR / AND The most recent threat received from a terror group.
Modus Operandi & Area of operation
The most high risk regions are__. The safer regions are_____
Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)
The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)
Analysis
We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___ Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents
Personal response
What you can do-general security advice.
Politics:
Historical context
Main political players, current government
Government policies, policy direction
Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology
Threat to stability?
Internal - external Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence
Response to the threat.
Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc
Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security.
Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.
Civil unrest (Element of political)
Incidence of civil unrest are regularly/periodically reported in (country). Most incidence take the form of peaceful demonstrations/mass rallies/marches/riots/clashes with police/strikes in response to domestic issues/regional issues/international issues/random. Civil gatherings are usually peaceful/Civil gatherings turn violent on occasion with little warning. These usually occur in major cities (capital etc)/rural areas/outlying areas etc. and affect travellers in terms of delays/do not overly affect travel itenaries/have a direct impact on travellers safety (Special note). Avoid them etc + (link)
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