Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Militias and secession, how to succeed.


Regional conflicts are not modern problems for states. As long as there have been central governments, there have been groups opposed to the status quo, some of which have taken up arms to overthrow the ruling regimes. Success is usually measured by the power they are able to extract from their conflict, be it total victory or some sort of regional concession. One of the most significant successes include the Russian Revolution, American War of Independence and numerous colonial wars that resulted in the removal of the ruling regime. But what did these groups have that differentiated them from other less successful groups, thinking primarily of FARC in Colombia, the LTTE in Sri Lanka and Jundallah in Iran where conflicts continue to rage on endlessy and with, seemingly, no end in sight.

  • Popular support. Usually groups opposed to a government require the support of the majority of a countries people in order to take full control, or of a regions people to take federal control. Unfortunately for many regional groupings they remain too small to openly combat central government. However, in places like Iraq, regional autonomy can be achieved, see the KRG for example.

  • Backing from international powers. During the cold war US and Soviet led coups were commonplace and couldn't have succeeded without their support. Today this sort of support is less likely, in a world becoming increasingly dominated by international consensus and the idea of national sovereignty. However, covert support from the major powers is still hinted at occassionaly. Iran supports Shiite militias in Iraq and the US supports 'democracy advocates in Iran.'

  • Single mindedness and unity. This may sound obvious, but if groups become splinteted in their goals like in the Philippines amongst the Moro fighters, it becomes impossible to gain any significant advantage.

So there you have it, not exactly a closed list but a starting point for any would-be revolutionaries.

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