Lebanon: The primary players and their goals

What they want or dont want

Iran - Destruction of Israel, removal of pro-West government in Lebanon. Will support Syria and Hamas to achieve these ultimate goals.
Syria - Return to Lebanon either through Hezbollah proxy or through military occupation
Lebanese Future Movement (anti-Syrian majority) - Maintain hegemony in Lebanon, try to reach consensus with Hezbollah i.e. get Hezbollah to accept anything less than a veto power in the cabinet.
Hezbollah/Amal - They want a veto in the Lebanese executive.
Israel - Wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and its northern border secured so that it can concentrate on Gaza and Hamas.
US - Wants pro-Western government to remain in power to balance Syria and Hezbollah
Russia - Doesn’t want the US to gain a foothold in Lebanon. Will look to remain neutral and a balance to any US involvement in Lebanon. Currently have naval bases in Syria (Alleppo).

Possible scenarios:

• Civil war in Lebanon, unlikely at present, unless foreign interference.
• Syrian preemptive attack on Golan Heights. Co-ordianted with Hezbollah. Unlikely, Syria would be punished severely by Israeli counter attacks.
• Popular uprising by Shiites. Unlikley, Lebanese army remains strong and has so far crushed any open dissent.
• If the Lebanese army were to fracture or weaken further, its likely that we would have to rate the country as extreme. They are the primary keepers of the peace at the moment.
• Syrian allies in Lebanon stage coup, Syrian military intervention to 'stabilize' the country.Hezbollah attack Israel in retaliation for 12 Feb assassination, Israel respond in kind at some point. Winter is a mitigating factor, slowing Israeli advance. Likely Israeli response at this time to be targeted attacks against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon/Beirut and or Beqaa Valley.

Notes:
Syrians main option is to further destabilise Lebanon through targeted assassinations etc. They rely on Hezbollah, however, to play along. If Hezbollah find that the pro-West government is unlikely to give up power they may be open to Syrians greater involvement in Lebanon.

Russia and US are balanced in the Mediterranean, unlikely to get directly involved over threat of larger scale war. Israel will maintain defensive positions and will be unwilling to mobilize fully unless a serious escalation in hostilities. The season also mitigates against a ground invasion at the moment. The UN are mere observers in southern Lebanon and will not stand in the way of an Israeli invasion or Hezbollah troop movements.

Upcoming events:

26 February Lebanese parliament convene for the 14th / 15 th time to elect a president. Likely to be postponed again.

29 March: Arab Summit in Damascus.