Thoughts on the upcoming Egyptian presidential poll

(Inset: Islamist candidate, Morsy) I'm looking ahead with interest to the forthcoming presidential election in Egypt between Islamist candidate, Mohamed Morsy and former regime stalwart, Ahmed Shafik, on 16 June. The election is viewed as the final hurdle Egypt must cross before its transition from authoritarian rule to democracy is accomplished. At least that's the way it is being presented. In reality the resignation of Mubarak in 2011 changed very little. Yes, the National Democratic Party (NDP) was banned and dismantled and Mubarak lost his job. But as Shafik's ascendancy proves, elements of the former regime remain in positions of power. The military and its special interests, the backbone of Egypt since independence, have also played a crucial role in the post-Mubarak environment. It has led the executive and is unlikely to give up its power that easily to a civilian president and even less likely to surrender it to an Islamist president. This leads us to what powers the president will have. Under the Muabarak regime the executive was the most powerful in the system. The legislature acted as a rubber stamp for decisions made by Mubarak and his inner circle. The military is unlikely to accept a new constitution (efforts are underway to formulate this) which maintains this executive power of the president or reduces the power of the military. Finally, Egypt's revolutionaries who led the charge against Mubarak during the Arab Spring feel justifiably left out. They wanted an open, secular, democratic and civilian government. What they have currently is a military dominated state with an overwhelmingly strong Islamist leaning parliament. The polarisation of Egypt is palpable and one expects will continue to characterise the landscape for some years to come.