Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Impending doom in Syria

From time to time one gets a sense of an impending event, good or bad. In this case, bad. I speak of course of Syria. Efforts by Kofi Anan, the eternal optimist, to broker a truce have failed, again. The rebels have openly withdrawn from the 12 April truce agreement and by all accounts the fighting in the country has intensified. Do not be fooled by the regime offering aid corridors to the humanitarian organisations. This, like the limited UN observer mission, is being carefully managed by Assad and his cronies who are using the simple equation of aid worker/observer in = fighting stops. Aid worker/observer out = fighting continues. Over the past two days the regime has extended its offensive in Hama and Latakia and rebels claim to have killed over 100 soldiers. Russia and China, Syria's two principle allies, are losing patience, but are unlikely to withdraw support fully. Syria, sensing its time is running out is likely to attempt something silly. An escalation in-country, fomenting chaos in Lebanon or something more rash. The breaking point is coming and its not a case of if but rather when.

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