Its been 18 months since the Arab Spring started - so whats changed? Simple answer. Not much. From Morocco to Iran, the 'street' has failed to bring revolution. Rather it has brought buckets of hope and promises to reform. MECASR presents the Arab Spring scorecard:
Morocco - The king is still the big cheese and parliament are still lackies. Want to book a nice holiday. Morocco is the place to be. The opposition may mount some challenge in the near term. But for now, business as usual.
Algeria - The ruling party successfully manipulated the recent poll and dominates the political scene. The people seem unbothered as long as food prices stay low.
Tunisia - One of the few success stories. Ennahada has come to power and the old regime is pretty much gone.
Libya - No Gaddafi = good. No Gaddafi = bad. With no strongman to unite this fractured country the medium term outlook remains bleak.
Egypt - Its lost US$21 of its 36 billion foreign currency reserve in the past 18 months. It has a toothless parliament and still no president. Hopefully the military will give the new president some power. Hopefully Santa will give me a porsche this year. Don't hold your breathe.
Yemen - Saleh is gone and Hadi is in. The country, however, is pretty much gone. The people got their wish, but without a strongman there are strong indications that this country will continue to fracture. 20 year forecast, failed state.
Saudi Arabia - Thank goodness for all that oil.
Iran - The Persians have a tight hold on their country and the regime looks stronger than ever. Anyone's guess what Israel and the US will do about its nukes. Serious gray zone here. Forecasting for Iran is difficult.
Bahrain - Dynamite comes in small packages and in Bahrain there isn't much of it left because its all been thrown at the police. The Sunni minority are holding on and the Shiites national sport, the riot, is gaining in popularity. The Sunnis have one major card that will keep them in power...Sunni Saudi Arabia. Its still closer than Shiite Iran and until that earthquake pushes Bahrain across the Gulf, Bahrain will remain Sunni. Queue endless protesting for the rest of eternity.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
So, "whats changed?", you ask.
Its been 18 months since the Arab Spring started - so whats changed? Simple answer. Not much. From Morocco to Iran, the 'street' has failed to bring revolution. Rather it has brought buckets of hope and promises to reform. MECASR presents the Arab Spring scorecard:
Morocco - The king is still the big cheese and parliament are still lackies. Want to book a nice holiday. Morocco is the place to be. The opposition may mount some challenge in the near term. But for now, business as usual.
Algeria - The ruling party successfully manipulated the recent poll and dominates the political scene. The people seem unbothered as long as food prices stay low.
Tunisia - One of the few success stories. Ennahada has come to power and the old regime is pretty much gone.
Libya - No Gaddafi = good. No Gaddafi = bad. With no strongman to unite this fractured country the medium term outlook remains bleak.
Egypt - Its lost US$21 of its 36 billion foreign currency reserve in the past 18 months. It has a toothless parliament and still no president. Hopefully the military will give the new president some power. Hopefully Santa will give me a porsche this year. Don't hold your breathe.
Yemen - Saleh is gone and Hadi is in. The country, however, is pretty much gone. The people got their wish, but without a strongman there are strong indications that this country will continue to fracture. 20 year forecast, failed state.
Saudi Arabia - Thank goodness for all that oil.
Iran - The Persians have a tight hold on their country and the regime looks stronger than ever. Anyone's guess what Israel and the US will do about its nukes. Serious gray zone here. Forecasting for Iran is difficult.
Bahrain - Dynamite comes in small packages and in Bahrain there isn't much of it left because its all been thrown at the police. The Sunni minority are holding on and the Shiites national sport, the riot, is gaining in popularity. The Sunnis have one major card that will keep them in power...Sunni Saudi Arabia. Its still closer than Shiite Iran and until that earthquake pushes Bahrain across the Gulf, Bahrain will remain Sunni. Queue endless protesting for the rest of eternity.
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