Post-election buzz in Iraq

Iraq staged successful provincial elections in 14 of its 18 governorates on 31 January, in what was viewed as a test of the Nouri al-Maliki administration's ability to provide adequate security and advance 'normal politics' in a country that has been racked by a bloody insurgency and vicious sectarian violence. The vote itself was accompanied by stringent security measures and these measures seem to have worked, with only minor violence having been reported at some polling stations. But this vote was never really about the vote itself. It was and is about the outcome. Since the vote was staged, Sunni tribes based in Anbar region and aligned to the powerful Awakening Council have claimed that the vote was fraudulent and that there main opponent in the Anbar governorate, the Iraqi Islamic Party, was complicit in the vote rigging.

Now this may not seem that surprising for many watchers of third world elections - opposition groups often accuse each other of fraud usually once the results seem to indicate they may not win - however, in Iraq, the allegations must be taken seriously and if any fraud is discovered the vote must be held again. Anbar was the centre of the Iraqi Sunni insurgency post-2003 and only recently has order returned following a deal struck between the central government and the local tribes to rout Sunni insurgents, like al-Qaeda, from the large desert region. Another concern remains the tribe's commitment to democracy. They have long wanted to control the Anbar region, through the Awakening council; if they were to lose the vote (regardless of whether fraud is proven or not) violence is likely. Maliki's successful vote may yet prove to be a catastrophe not only for the new Iraqi political system but also for the stability of the state as a whole. Watch this space - results due out later today (5 Feb).