Monday, February 2, 2009

Evaluating risk

Heres a short piece I did exactly two years on how to evaluate terrorism and political stability. Very simplified but provides a starting point for understanding how risk is evaluated.

Terrorism:

Current status

We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)

There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.

This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.

The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.

The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)

On that occasion___.

OR / AND

The most recent threat received from a terror group.

Modus Operandi & Area of operation

The most high risk regions are__.

The safer regions are_____

Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)

The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)

Analysis

We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___ Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents

Personal response

What you can do-general security advice.

Politics:

Historical context

Main political players, current government Government policies, policy direction

Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology

Threat to stability?

Internal - external

Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence

Response to the threat.

Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc

Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security. Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.

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