The G20 Distraction

While most of the world's attention has focused on the global economic slow down and the G20 economic summit in London, many security issues are getting scant attention in the world press and by world leaders. Africa has suffered a spate of illegitimate regime changes in recent months (Mali, Mauritania, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar) and existing regimes (Sudan, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Algeria, Zimbabwe), that had been strongly criticised for their undemocratic practices in the past by the West, have slipped under the radar and been allowed to pursue policies that are unalligned to the global democratic movement. India and Pakistan are also experiencing severe militant activity and tensions in Thailand between the government and anti-government forces are threatening another PAD type situation. These issues aside it is the recent resurgence of Sunni extremism in Iraq that has sparked my interest in recent months.

The rhetoric on Iraq (emanating from the US) flooded the airwaves and discussion boards in 2008. It was a major, major election issue that ultimately scuttled the Republican campaign. The improving Iraqi security situation and the relatively peaceful passing of the 31 January provincial elections, raised hopes that the tide had finally been turned and Iraq could return to a semblance of normality. However, a spate of suicide attacks in Baghdad (and in the relatively peaceful Basra) in March has shaken popular confidence in Iraq. Fighting between Sunni tribesmen, who had recently been enlisted in the Iraqi security forces, and US and Iraq security units in Baghdad has also raised concerns, particularly as the Sunni tribes have complained that they are being unfairly treated in the new Iraqi polity and had threatened to take up arms to regain power in Anbar if there demands were not met.

These developments have shown that Iraq is far from stable and promises by the US and UK administrations that the war in Iraq was nearing its end have proven false. This misinformation has distracted most of us. Sunni extremists remain a direct threat to the Iraqi state, Iraq's neighbours and the world. If they are allowed to continue their campaigns, cracks that are already showing in Iraq between Kurds and Arabs, Shiites and Sunnis, and between Shiite, Sunni and Kurd groups, may widen further. An unstable Iraq leads to an unstable Middle East, the source of oil for most of the planet and crucially the world's economy.

Barak Obama and other world leaders need to move security back to the front of the world agenda. The economy is important, but that’s why we have bankers, finance ministers and Bono. If regimes in African and Asia continue to act like despots, more Saddam Husseins and Idi Amins will emerge (if they haven’t already) and the seeds of future conflicts will be planted.