Thursday, August 15, 2013

Egypt: Understanding the political instability

Since 14 August, there has been a significant outbreak of violence across Egypt as the military moved to clear protest camps that were established in support of the recently deposed, democratically elected president, Mohammed Mursi. However, Egypt’s political stability has been significantly undermined over the past 32 months, dating back to January and February 2011, when countrywide anti-government rallies led to the resignation of former long-serving president, Hosni Mubarak, and the banning of the former ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Following a transitional period of military rule under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (February 2011 to June 2012), Islamist political parties emerged as the dominant political force in elections in late 2011 and early 2012. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB)’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and the Salafist al-Nour Party (and the Islamic Bloc) emerged as the primary political groupings, with approximately 65 percent of the seats in the People's Assembly. Liberal, leftist, moderate Islamic and former NDP-linked parties fared poorly. The presidential election in mid-2012 was won by Mohammed Mursi, an MB member; he narrowly defeated Ahmed Shafik, a former Mubarak-era cabinet minister and military leader. 

 From June 2012 to June 2013, animosity toward the Islamist-dominated government grew in response to opposition accusations that Islamists were centralising power, undermining the functioning of the judiciary and failing to meet the goals of the 2011 revolution. The constitution drafting process in late 2012 was also heavily criticised by the opposition as the drafting committee, the Constituent Assembly, was allegedly dominated by Islamist personalities. The tension between the opposition and the Islamists culminated in major countrywide anti-Islamist protests in June 2013. On 3 July, the powerful military leadership announced that it was intervening in the crisis. The military announced the suspension of the constitution. The military also removed and arrested Mursi (who remains in detention), and made the head of the Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, the interim president. Since then, Mansour has issued a constitutional declaration (on 8 July) outlining the transition period (expected to last at least six months), appointed a new prime minister (on 9 July), and overseen the appointment of a new interim cabinet (on 16 July). 

 In the weeks following the 3 July military takeover, the MB-led National Coalition in Support of Legitimacy led a number of counter-protests against the military takeover, calling for the reinstatement of Mursi and the former constitution. These were largely held on Fridays and affected the capital, Cairo, and Alexandria. From mid- to late July, two primary gathering points emerged in Cairo and Giza, namely the Rabaa El Adawia Mosque in Nasr City and Nahda Square, respectively. These protests were affected by sporadic acts of violence, both minor and significant. On 8 July, military personnel fired on pro-Mursi demonstrators in Nasr City, killing 51 people. On 27 July, approximately 120 pro-Mursi protesters were killed in another attack in Nasr City. Following these events, calls by the interim government to the MB to disperse its Cairo and Giza rallies increased and concern was raised that the authorities were planning to quash the major sit-ins following Ramadan. On 14 August, this concern was realised as police forces, supported by military personnel, surrounded and stormed the Islamist protest sites in Giza and the capital. The crackdown and subsequent reactionary protests and violence have thus far left over 400 people dead and thousands more wounded. The MB has alleged that approximately 2,000 people were killed. Acts of violence, which impacted on urban centres between Aswan and Alexandria, took the form of armed clashes between opposing political groupings and/or security forces, in addition to targeted attacks on security installations and Coptic Christian places of worship. Foreign nationals and areas frequented by foreign nationals were not overly affected; however, at least one British journalist was shot and killed while covering the unrest in Cairo. The journalist was apparently not directly targeted.

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