Analysis - Devil in the detail

The devil is in the detail. Analysis is a tricky business in the security and political sphere. One can very often jump to conclusions based on assumptions and preconceived notions. The challenge then for all analysts is to challenge each piece of information that they receive. For example. The military in Egypt took control of the country to end a political crisis. This is a common hypothesis in the media. Other options one could consider are 1) The military has long mistrusted the true motives of the Muslim Brothers and saw an opportunity to sideline the group 2) The military want a president (the position holds much weight in Egypt) that they can control to protect their economic interests 3) The military are part of an American Zionist alliance that aims to undermine political Islam. The third one is a bit crazy but for analysts none of these can be dismissed. They should be considered and carefully analysed. For analysts in operations the task before them is typically easier. We simply need to understand what the ramifications of events are. So we draw up a list of potential causes and outcomes and group the possible ramifications. Under all three of the above the Islamists are likely to continue to agitate. This is therefore, from an operational analytical perspective, our main conclusion we deliver to our security teams and clients. For all analysts, and to reiterate, the devil is in the details, he hides where we can not or will not see it. We need to engage our colleagues, our minds and take five to sit back and consider. All options and all views (from senior and junior analysts) should be tabelled before reaching a conclusion.