Yemen - Critical upcoming National Dialogue Conference on 18 March

On 6 February, Yemen President Abdul Rabu Mansoor Hadi announced that a National Dialogue Conference will be held on 18 March. The anticipated start of the much delayed dialogue is expected to usher in a period of normalization of ties between the country's disparate opposition groups through the creation of a civil state and stronger governing institutions. A new constitution is also expected to be drafted. Following the dialogue there are hopes that conditions will be created wherein Yemen can organise fresh election in 2014. Getting all of the relevant parties to participate in the talks would be a major success. Currently, all major groups, excluding the Islamist militant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are expected to participate; however, given the highly contentious nature of Yemen politics currently the withdrawal of one or more of the major players prior to or during the talks remains a distinct possibility.

The two most significant players in the forthcoming dialogue, Hirak and the Houthis, hold the key to a successful dialogue. Hirak, a loose coalition of southern activist and opposition groups, is pushing for greater political power in the south. The group itself is split between those that want a federal system and those that want full secession. The group has issued several provocative statements in recent days and its members have attacked government and pro-government facilities and personnel across the south. Its members have also been implicated in attacks on the Islamist Islah party. Hirak accuses Islah, the primary player in the opposition Joint Meeting Parties opposition movement, of attacking its members during a pro-secession demonstration in Aden in February.  The Houthis are a well-armed Shiite grouping in northern Yemen, which have been battling the central government and its allies since 2004. The group currently holds much of Saada governorate and holds strong influence in the neighbouring governorates of Amran, Hajja and al-Jawf. Should the Houthis or Hirak (or parts of it) decide not to participate in the dialogue, the implications for the country could be disastrous and a return to conflict (or full scale civil war) becomes a distinct possibility.