Battle for the Levant

The conflict in Syria remains a primary regional security concern in the Levant. The fighting, which has raged since March 2011, has left over 70,000 people dead and displaced over two million. Rebels currently control approximately half of the country but critically the regime maintains control of the capital and towns and cities along the Mediterranean coast. The prospects of a decisive battle remain slim and the war is likely to persist for the next year at least. Syria maintains the support of Russia, China and Iran, countries which continue to resupply the regime's military and offer it political cover at the United Nations. The rebels meanwhile are facing an internal battle of their own. Dissent among the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) is at an all-time high and the disparate groupings which comprise the coalition find it difficult to agree on the time of day. This weakness is reflected further on the battlefield where Islamist fighters, technically aligned to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), act largely independent of it. These battalions are viewed as highly disciplined and are well-armed. Indeed, in many recent major battles groups like the al-Nusra Front have taken the lead in confrontations with the regime. Despite these weaknesses the rebels are gaining the ascendancy, albeit slowly, and the prospects for regime survival are low. Over the next year I fully expect the rebels to push into regime strongholds and for the Assad regime to begin to crumble. As the government seeks to protect its ruling minority Alawite sect a displacement of pro-government forces is likely to the north west coast line. Don't be surprised if these forces declare a separate state in this region while the largely majority Sunni rebels fight over the remainder of the country.