US Force withdraw from Iraq - 2012 Concerns

The United States Forces-Iraq lowered its colours during a ceremony in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, on 15 December. The ceremony marked the end of the US military's non-diplomatic presence in the country and comes ahead of the 31 December 2011 withdrawal of US troops from Iraq (other than those protecting the US Embassy in Baghdad) which falls in line with the status of forces agreement between the US and Iraq. At least 4,000 troops remain in the country as of 15 December; however, this force is expected to leave Iraq during the week of 19 December, ahead of the 31 December formal deadline.

The US withdrawal ends a nine year presence in Iraq. There are concerns that the withdrawal of the US military from the country could result in political instability and insecurity. Although the Iraqi police and military have taken control of security in all areas of the country the force remains prone to corruption, is split along sectarian lines and is susceptible to infiltration from non-state armed groups. Their ability to provide adequate security without physical US military support remains questionable. The stability of the Iraqi government has improved in recent years; however, there are a plethora of security and political challenges that could destabilise state in the medium-term. Among the challenges are ongoing tensions between Arabs and Kurds in the north of the country, concerns of Iranian interference in Iraq after the US withdrawal, the persistent threat of Sunni Islamist extremism and a host of internal border and political disputes. Tensions between Sunnis and Shiites also remain elevated and may be further exacerbated by ongoing disputes. Highlighting the threat, the predominantly Sunni Diyala governorate on 12 December declared its intention of pursuing semi-autonomy from the predominantly Shiite central government. The decision has been met by stiff opposition from Shiites in the governorate who held protests in the governorate capital, Baqubah, on 14 and 15 December. The Diyala autonomy decision followed a similar declaration by the authorities in the predominantly Sunni Salah ad-din governorate in October. These issues and challenges have the potential to further enflame sectarian and political tensions in Iraq and result in unrest and violence, which in turn could be taken advantage of by non-state armed groups.

www.red24.com