The Middle East in 2012

The Arab Spring was but a twinkle in Hosni's eye this time last year with the first rumblings of social discontent echoing through Tunisia and Algeria. So what signs are there now that could provide a clue to what we can expect in 2012?

In Iraq the US military withdrawal has left a power vacuum that most major political players in the region are keen to take advantage of. At the highest levels the contest between the State of Law and Iraqiya has heated up considerably with the VP and Deputy PM firmly in the sites of PM Maliki and Iraqiya threatening to withdraw from the government. This comes amid a backdrop of suspected Sunni extremist attacks and autonomy pushes by Sunni governorates that threatens another bout of sectarian blood letting. Its too early to tell how this will play out; however, the indications are that the future of Iraq is not looking great.

The Arab Spring is still continuing. It may be the longest season in history but its one that is expected to persist for a while yet. Political transitions are underway in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen (arguably); however, old political elites remain in power and the people are likely to push against these stoic forces throughout 2012. More protests should therefore be expected.

Syria's outlook remains bleak. With few options left to it, the government has taken to manufacturing crisis'. The 22 Dec bombing in Damascus was well orchestrated by the regime to coincide with the Arab League observer mission and was an attempt to solicit some sort of sympathy for the regime and add credence to its old claim that it, and not the protesters, are under greatest threat. 2012 will be a watershed for the Assad regime, either the protests will die out or armed groups opposed to the government combined with sanctions will weaken the regime considerably. When this happens the oligarchy may turn on itself or it will simply collapse. A compromise political solution does not appear to be a likely out at this stage.

These are three of the most pressing issues MENA will face in 2012. There will be other crisis' of course, such as Israeli/Palestinian tensions, Hezbollah vs Israel conflict part 2, AQIM kidnappings and the fall of one of the more stable regimes in the region (possibly). I will be an interested watcher and, as always, will endeavour to keep my blog, and you the reader, updated with interesting tit-bits from one of the most volatile and interesting regions on the planet. Happy holidays and Merry Christmas to you and your close ones, see you in 2012!