Homs under siege - video

The news from Homs in the past few weeks has been bleak. Syrian opposition activists have regularly issued communiques of regime military operations in the city against opposition supporters; however, the real picture has been difficult to comprehend as independent media have been banned from covering the unrest in the country. Now CNN has issued a video of Homs, secretly smuggled out of the country, that gives the outside world a view of developments in the central Syrian city. The video is accessible here.

The video portrays a city in chaos. Rubbish is strewn across the roads, indicating that public services are non-functioning, sandbag checkpoints are dotted across some rooftops and snipers are exacting a heavy toll on day to day activity. It should be noted that only some of the city is affected. One person interviewed stated that it was difficult for people to leave the area they were in to get bread and other commodities, suggesting that some sort of economic activity still exists. The neightbourhood in question is likely Bab Amr, an anti-government hotspot.

The violence in Homs has been some of the most severe in the country. Only Deraa, Hama and Idlib have experienced similarly high levels of unrest and conflict. The government has failed to end the unrest and its policy of direct confrontation has aggravated tensions between loyalists and the opposition. Even if the regime were to cease security operations in civilian areas the damage, it appears, has been done. The opposition is becoming increasingly belligerent and its demands for an end to the Assad dynasty are unlikely to end given the heavy toll already paid in blood by residents of towns like Homs.

The Middle East in 2012

The Arab Spring was but a twinkle in Hosni's eye this time last year with the first rumblings of social discontent echoing through Tunisia and Algeria. So what signs are there now that could provide a clue to what we can expect in 2012?

In Iraq the US military withdrawal has left a power vacuum that most major political players in the region are keen to take advantage of. At the highest levels the contest between the State of Law and Iraqiya has heated up considerably with the VP and Deputy PM firmly in the sites of PM Maliki and Iraqiya threatening to withdraw from the government. This comes amid a backdrop of suspected Sunni extremist attacks and autonomy pushes by Sunni governorates that threatens another bout of sectarian blood letting. Its too early to tell how this will play out; however, the indications are that the future of Iraq is not looking great.

The Arab Spring is still continuing. It may be the longest season in history but its one that is expected to persist for a while yet. Political transitions are underway in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen (arguably); however, old political elites remain in power and the people are likely to push against these stoic forces throughout 2012. More protests should therefore be expected.

Syria's outlook remains bleak. With few options left to it, the government has taken to manufacturing crisis'. The 22 Dec bombing in Damascus was well orchestrated by the regime to coincide with the Arab League observer mission and was an attempt to solicit some sort of sympathy for the regime and add credence to its old claim that it, and not the protesters, are under greatest threat. 2012 will be a watershed for the Assad regime, either the protests will die out or armed groups opposed to the government combined with sanctions will weaken the regime considerably. When this happens the oligarchy may turn on itself or it will simply collapse. A compromise political solution does not appear to be a likely out at this stage.

These are three of the most pressing issues MENA will face in 2012. There will be other crisis' of course, such as Israeli/Palestinian tensions, Hezbollah vs Israel conflict part 2, AQIM kidnappings and the fall of one of the more stable regimes in the region (possibly). I will be an interested watcher and, as always, will endeavour to keep my blog, and you the reader, updated with interesting tit-bits from one of the most volatile and interesting regions on the planet. Happy holidays and Merry Christmas to you and your close ones, see you in 2012!

Can Maliki hold it together?

Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, appears to be in a tight spot. The Iraqiya bloc have threatened to depart leaving him without a governing majority after Maliki moved against VP al-Hashimi and deputy pm al-Mutlak, both influential members of Iraqiya. Al-Maliki's intent appears to be clear. He wants to dominate in a post-US Iraq, he wants to retain control of the security forces and he sees the future of Iraq as under threat. Yet he faces a problem. He can not save his country without Iraqiya and Iraqiya do not want him - the simple option would be to announce new ministers for the defence and interior ministries. The question is, can he trust anyone to do it? Well, he is going to have to if he wants to remain prime minister.

Unrest returns to Cairo

Protesters and military police officers clashed in the vicinity of the Cabinet offices and Parliament in central Cairo during the early morning hours of 16 and on 17 December 2011. Demonstrators were angered when unverified reports of the beating of a detained protester circulated online. The crowd of approximately 300 people set fire to vehicles and threw stones and Molotov cocktails at police officers, prompting police officers to fire into the air and use water cannons. The fighting continued throughout the morning, and at least one government building was burned during the clashes, but other buildings in the area were not under threat. Authorities reported that at least 15 people suffered injuries in the violence, which subsided by the afternoon hours.

- Airsecurity

US Force withdraw from Iraq - 2012 Concerns

The United States Forces-Iraq lowered its colours during a ceremony in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, on 15 December. The ceremony marked the end of the US military's non-diplomatic presence in the country and comes ahead of the 31 December 2011 withdrawal of US troops from Iraq (other than those protecting the US Embassy in Baghdad) which falls in line with the status of forces agreement between the US and Iraq. At least 4,000 troops remain in the country as of 15 December; however, this force is expected to leave Iraq during the week of 19 December, ahead of the 31 December formal deadline.

The US withdrawal ends a nine year presence in Iraq. There are concerns that the withdrawal of the US military from the country could result in political instability and insecurity. Although the Iraqi police and military have taken control of security in all areas of the country the force remains prone to corruption, is split along sectarian lines and is susceptible to infiltration from non-state armed groups. Their ability to provide adequate security without physical US military support remains questionable. The stability of the Iraqi government has improved in recent years; however, there are a plethora of security and political challenges that could destabilise state in the medium-term. Among the challenges are ongoing tensions between Arabs and Kurds in the north of the country, concerns of Iranian interference in Iraq after the US withdrawal, the persistent threat of Sunni Islamist extremism and a host of internal border and political disputes. Tensions between Sunnis and Shiites also remain elevated and may be further exacerbated by ongoing disputes. Highlighting the threat, the predominantly Sunni Diyala governorate on 12 December declared its intention of pursuing semi-autonomy from the predominantly Shiite central government. The decision has been met by stiff opposition from Shiites in the governorate who held protests in the governorate capital, Baqubah, on 14 and 15 December. The Diyala autonomy decision followed a similar declaration by the authorities in the predominantly Sunni Salah ad-din governorate in October. These issues and challenges have the potential to further enflame sectarian and political tensions in Iraq and result in unrest and violence, which in turn could be taken advantage of by non-state armed groups.

www.red24.com

Arab Spring enters the Winter Wait as first anniversary commemorated

On 17 December 2010, a vegetable seller in Sidi Bizoud, central Tunisia, set himself on fire in protest against an insult by a policeperson and the confiscation of his merchandise. The act sparked protests in Tunisia and spread to the rest of the region in a wildfire of unrest. The protests have led to political changes across the region. In many areas the changes have been pronounced, such as Libya, where a new political system is in the process of being created while in other areas like Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen political transitions are ongoing and leadership change is imminent. As the MENA region enters 2012 questions will persist over state's where change has not occurred. Bahrain, Algeria, Syria and Iran are all simmering in one degree or another and political unrest appears one spark away. It will be an interesting period for MENA watchers.