Flashpoints and Ramadan

A strange quiet has descended across the usually manic Middle East this week. States from Morocco to Iran are commemorating the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a period during which Muslims fast during the day times and business activity is partly suspended. The quiet has given us some time to identify potential conflict flashpoints in the coming months. Here are a few for your reading pleasure:

 

Iraq: The conflict in Iraq is ongoing despite what the US administration may have us believe. Suicide bombings have taken a heavy toll in Baghdad recently and an attack targeting a civilian bus near Kut yesterday underscored the ongoing threat to civilians and foreigners. Challenges to the Maliki regime are also starting to gather ahead of the January 2010 general elections. The election is likely to be fiercely contested and any further gains for Shiite parties is likely to egg on Sunni extremists even further. Expect more of the same in the coming months.

 

Israel: Israel continues to allow settlement growth in the West Bank. This in itself is cause for concern and will add additional fuel to the anti-Israeli fire that continues to burn in the economically depressed and politically marginalised Gaza and West Bank communities. Add the status of Jerusalem, ongoing intra-Palestinian contestation and disunity and the rise of ultra-extremism in the Gaza and you have a potentially devastating brew. In the north, Israel continues to state that it does not desire war with the Shiite milita, Hezbollah. Yet for all this talk it continues to spend time on explaining to the world how dangerous Hezbollah has become since the previous war in 2006. Israel's peace mongering does not fool us. Israel are itching to have another go at Hezbollah and any threat, perceived or actual, is likely to prove to be a catalyst for a major Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon. PS The slaying of Imad Mugnihey in Damascus in February last year is still a major issue for Hezbollah, which has vowed to avenge the killing. Expect an attack on an Israeli target (globally) in the short-term.

 

Algeria/Mauritania and Niger: Political rhetoric and show boating have been the order of the day for these states in recent weeks. Much has been said about the new cooperation between the Sahel neighbours in their shared battle against Islamist militants; however, there isn't much to show as yet. A few Malian ventures into their northern domains have been the only action taken so far and Mauritania no doubt is looking into entering the bronze age before moving forward. Despite the rhetoric, expect these states to conduct periodic operations in the coming months. Joint offensive? Probably not.

 

As always Mecasr welcome your feedback and comments. If you would like to comment on this article, please follow the tabs below. If you would like to email the team you are more than welcome to at rushmore100@gmail.com.