Iraq on fire

As if we didn't know they still existed, Sunni extremists conducted a wave of bombings across northern Iraq today leaving dozens dead and wounded. The attacks targeted civilians and policemen. The pressure is mounting on the Iraqi authorities in the wake of the 30 June US pullout from urban centres. The Maliki administration must get a grip on the violence soon to prevent a further deterioration in the security situation and a further decline in the public's trust in the ability of the authorities to protect the ordinary man. There are also fears that Iran, which has now put its house in order following the election unrest, may be planning further instability in the country. Mecasr will be watching developments closely in the coming weeks.

Nokia or Samsung? Saudis cell phone menace

Prince Nayef, Saudi deputy Interior Minister, received a shock last night when a "suicide bomber" entered his palatial estate in Jeddah and detonated a mobile phone. The "suicide bomber" was the only casualty and Prince Nayef was shown on local TV a while later in good spirits. The "attack" was claimed by the deviant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a group which has come under severe pressure from Nayef in recent years. Nayef has been credited with the recent offensives against AQ and the government's success in curtailing the group's presence in the kingdom. Indeed, the latest attack seems to underscore how far AQ has fallen in the kingdom. No elaborate car bombing or shooting attack, but rather a mobile phone. Security was probably incredibly tight around the prince, but one must wonder how a group that was able to fly commercial aircraft into the two towers in New York and has successfully accomplished hundreds of VBIED, IED and EEP attacks in Iraq, could only manage a mobile phone detonation. So get your bags packed, Saudi is safe and a great place to get a tan. Book now.

STOP PRESS: UNIFIL mandate extended in Lebanon

The United Nations extended UNIFIL's mandate in southern Lebanon for another year yesterday in a move that is likely to lead to absolutely nothing. The peacekeeping force, which number approximately 12,000, was deployed in the area following the cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. It was deployed to monitor the ceasefire and lead the disarmament of the Hezbollah militia. While UNIFIL has accomplished some positives its primary mission, particularly in the field of landmine clearance, its most important mission to disarm the militia has failed miserably. In fact not only has Hezbollah rearmed it has also surpassed its 2006 rocket arsenal number. With approximately 40,000 crude to sophisticated rockets ready to use, the groundwork for a future war has been laid. If the group were a non-governmental group which was fighting for a 'homeland' or 'greater cause' the group's presence in southern Lebanon could be justified. However, Hezbollah maintains prominent position with the current Lebanese government and despite calls from Lebanese citizens (the majority I might add) for them to disarm and leave security in the hands of the Lebanese Army, they have flatly refused to do so and even trained their weapons on Lebanese themselves who attempted to disarm the group (May 2008 comes to mind). The United Nations continues to show how empty it is and that its ability to enforce resolutions is limited. We await Israel/Hezbollah round II.  

Yemen conflict: Picture tells a story...

A video grab released by the Houthi rebel group August 26, 2009 shows a member of the group leaving an armoured personnel carrier seized from the army during the ongoing operation on their strongholds in northwestern Yemen. The rebels said on Wednesday they had held off an attack by government forces in a northern province that has seen heavy fighting in recent days. Banner on the vehicle reads "Death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews, victory to Islam." - Reuters

Flashpoints and Ramadan

A strange quiet has descended across the usually manic Middle East this week. States from Morocco to Iran are commemorating the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a period during which Muslims fast during the day times and business activity is partly suspended. The quiet has given us some time to identify potential conflict flashpoints in the coming months. Here are a few for your reading pleasure:

 

Iraq: The conflict in Iraq is ongoing despite what the US administration may have us believe. Suicide bombings have taken a heavy toll in Baghdad recently and an attack targeting a civilian bus near Kut yesterday underscored the ongoing threat to civilians and foreigners. Challenges to the Maliki regime are also starting to gather ahead of the January 2010 general elections. The election is likely to be fiercely contested and any further gains for Shiite parties is likely to egg on Sunni extremists even further. Expect more of the same in the coming months.

 

Israel: Israel continues to allow settlement growth in the West Bank. This in itself is cause for concern and will add additional fuel to the anti-Israeli fire that continues to burn in the economically depressed and politically marginalised Gaza and West Bank communities. Add the status of Jerusalem, ongoing intra-Palestinian contestation and disunity and the rise of ultra-extremism in the Gaza and you have a potentially devastating brew. In the north, Israel continues to state that it does not desire war with the Shiite milita, Hezbollah. Yet for all this talk it continues to spend time on explaining to the world how dangerous Hezbollah has become since the previous war in 2006. Israel's peace mongering does not fool us. Israel are itching to have another go at Hezbollah and any threat, perceived or actual, is likely to prove to be a catalyst for a major Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon. PS The slaying of Imad Mugnihey in Damascus in February last year is still a major issue for Hezbollah, which has vowed to avenge the killing. Expect an attack on an Israeli target (globally) in the short-term.

 

Algeria/Mauritania and Niger: Political rhetoric and show boating have been the order of the day for these states in recent weeks. Much has been said about the new cooperation between the Sahel neighbours in their shared battle against Islamist militants; however, there isn't much to show as yet. A few Malian ventures into their northern domains have been the only action taken so far and Mauritania no doubt is looking into entering the bronze age before moving forward. Despite the rhetoric, expect these states to conduct periodic operations in the coming months. Joint offensive? Probably not.

 

As always Mecasr welcome your feedback and comments. If you would like to comment on this article, please follow the tabs below. If you would like to email the team you are more than welcome to at rushmore100@gmail.com. 

 

We want YOU for the rebel army!

Who would be a Shiite rebel in northern Yemen these days? Blazing hot sun, no beach, pretty poor benefits and a near 100% chance of being killed in an air raid while dining on camel in a Saada cave. Conditions in northern Yemen aren't great, anyone who has been to Clifton or spent 20 years in a labour camp would probably agree. Yet these ill-equipped and rag tag rebels continue to fight what seems to be a losing battle. Amid decidedly tepid calls for peace by the UN and the USA and the massive YAWN from the world media, the rebels, led by the al-Houthi family, are losing dozens of men each day - civilians aren't faring much better. Tens of thousands of some of the poorest people on the planet (i.e. no TV) have been displaced and are living in UN and Red Crescent refugee camps dotted across the Saada governorate.

The rebel group is comprised of some 3,000 'fighters' and is supported by some locals. The Yemeni government on the other hand has over 30,000 soldiers, is supported by air and artillery and boast armoured brigades. Yet the rebel cause like so many other "just causes" is, seemingly, worthwhile. From what we at Mecasr have been able to glean from the highly trustworthy Yemen Information Ministry is that the rebels want to control their areas of influence. In other words they want to keep their guns. They also don't trust the government enough to allow them to station troops in their communities. The government, which is supposed to provide services, is rightly aggrieved that it can't exert its control over areas it is supposed to be providing law and order for. There is also a desire among the rebels to reinstate rule by the Imams (the holy guys). Back in the day, 1962 to be exact, the republicans (not like the Bush clan) overthrew the Zaidi imamate in the north. Since then the Shiites/rebels/Houthis have been highly aggrieved that they have been excluded from the ruling structures in the country. In fact one of their current demands is that Houthis be given top government jobs (queue the WTF). So, maybe there is something to fight for. And why not? If you had to live in squalid conditions with no beach, poor benefits and a near 100% chance of death, wouldn't you consider risking it all for a chance...just one chance at a better life? Yea. Probably not.

Niger's Tandja 3-0 Democracy

Niger's colourful political landscape is throwing up more intrigue. On Tuesday, Tandja signed in a new constitution that would make even the Greek founders of Democracy turn in their graves. Under the new document Tandja's current term is extended by three years (it was meant to end in December) and he is allowed to run for a third term in 2012 - and for as long as he lives after that. The response from the international community has been shocking in its silence, but ultimately not surprising. Tandja has ruled the country with an iron fist in recent years and has quieted all dissent and opposition and at the moment a stable dictatorship is better than an unstable democracy. Niger's massive uranium deposits also come into the West's calculations (unstable regime in charge of uranium = not good). For the Nigerien political opposition, these are desperate times. The August 4 referendum on the constitutional amendments was accepted by over 90% of the voters (with a 68% turnout). Despite the setback, they plan further protests this weekend, which are likely to result in widespread disinterest.

Location of the attacks in Baghdad

Courtesy of BBC

Blood bath in Baghdad

A string of coordinated car bomb, conventional bomb and mortar attacks targeting the heavily fortified Green Zone and other Iraqi government buildings earlier today has left a swathe of destruction in Baghdad. At least 50 people have been killed and over 300 wounded in the embattled city and this figure is expected to increase. There have been no claims of responsibility as yet; however, the likely suspects are Sunni extremists motivated or inspired by al-Qaeda.

Jund Ansar Allah & Hamas revealed

More news on last week's clashes between Hamas and Jund Ansar Allah. Accusations that the group is linked to al-Qaeda remain unfounded, at least in an operational sense. This makes sense as the core Qaeda group are currently believed to be based in the Paki-Afghan border area (possibly in a deep dark cave) and providing assistance across such a distance would be difficult. Jund Ansar Allah is most certainly inspired by al-Qaeda, however, and a recent discussion Mecasr has had with leading counter-terrorism experts substantiates this. The groups flag, philosophy and outlook are similar in many ways to that of the now deceased Zarqawi. You will remember he was the Jordanian chap that led a campaign of beheadings in Iraq on behalf of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The group is also one of many such groups in the Gaza Strip that are not aligned with the current Hamas administration. Jund for their part have vowed swift revenge for the spilt blood of their martyrs and further clashes can be expected. In other news, someone has recently leaked Hamas' balance sheet. The group's income is derived predominantly through smuggling (they levy a 14.5% tax on all smuggled goods entering the Strip) which amounts to approximately US$100 million a month. This has allowed the group to expand its activities into property of all things. If you're ever strolling along the Gaza coastline look out for khaki clad chaps with suitcases filled with US Dollars offering vast sums for beach side manors.

Niger, the "D" word and the SABC

Nigeriens (that's natives of Niger not Nigeria!) will go to the polls on 20 August to elect a new parliament. Democracy it would seem, at least from the outside, is alive and well. Well, not quite. The president of the country, a colourful chap named Tandja, came to power in 1999 and like many of his esteemed African predecessors has decided that his time in office was well spent and should continue...for the benefit of the people of course. In early August Tandja held a constitutional referendum on whether or not he could stand for a third term. This was after the Constitutional Court had ruled any referendum illegal. Tandja's response was to dissolve the court and replace it with loyalists. The outcry in the country was deafening (except to us here in SA, Niger doesn't feature high on the SABC's priorities) and protests and strike action were held regularly in the capital. Yet the sense we got here at Mecasr was that the majority of the locals cared more about not getting sunburnt than Tandja's attempts to hold on to the only air conditioned building in Niamey (that being the presidential palace). The referendum was held and an overwhelming number of Nigeriens voted YES. In the capital over 85% of the people who actually bothered to turn up, voted in favour of the change. The new Constitutional Court backed the referendum and Tandja can now, legally (not that it actually matters to him), stand in elections at the end of the year. As a supporter of democracy, well, this all smacks of a farce really, but who are we to judge? Zimbabweans voted Bob back into power and Mauritanians recently elected a coup leader as president! Africa's strong men trump Western democracy again it would seem and the question now is, is it time for the West to back off, to let Africa develop its own political systems? China has done it well, they send the workers and cash in, reap the benefits and leave. As for Niger, well, no one really cares anyway. By the way, where is Niger?

Leading Shiite rebel commander killed in northern Yemen

Reports from war-torn northern Yemen this morning tell a tell of widespread fighing and bloodshed and a crucial victory for the Yemeni military. Hussein Kamza, the commander of rebels in the Amran governorate, has reportedly been killed during violent clashes with the army. Further details on how he died have not been made and independent confirmation of the leader's death have not been received. Overall leader of the Shiite rebels, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, remains at large. In a seperate development, the rebels have refused to accept the government's ceasefire proposals. In a region with deep seated mistrust of the central government this is not suprising. Mecasr will continue to monitor this conflict closely in the weeks to come.

Ultra-Islamism in the Gaza, take II

More information is coming to light on the shadowy Islamist group, Jund Ansar Allah. The group made world headlines last week when its followers clashed with Hamas gunmen in the Gaza Strip's Rafah city after its leader, Sheikh Abdel-Latif Moussa, declared an Islamic Emirate in the Strip. Communiques from the group, recently translated by the NEFA Foundation, indicate that Moussa had strong ties with the Hamas and the al-Qassem brigades (military wing of Hamas) leaderships, but had recently fallen out of favour with the group. The reasons provided for this falling out are provided by Jund's propaganda team, which boast that its military prowess was becoming a threat to Hamas. The subsequent hit on Moussa and his followers in Rafah last Friday can be viewed as an attempt by the Gaza usurpers (recall that Hamas defeated Fatah for control of the Strip in 2007) to maitain its hegemony in the impoverished coastal enclave. Claims that the group is linked to al-Qaeda have also been rubbished by Jund's media branch; however, this isn't suprising as al-Qaeda, it would seem, and groups associated with it are looking towards lowering their public image - for good reason. Since 2001 the group has been virtually decimated. The al-Qaeda connection will need to be studied further later on.

So why has Jund suddnely appeared and gained a following? The answer can be found by looking at the conditions within the Gaza Strip. Politically Hamas, Fatah and the PLO have failed its people. The Palestinian polity are more fragmented than ever and we are no nearer to securing a lasting peace and two state solution than we were in 1993 with Arafat's widely condemned and ill-fated Oslo Peace Accords. Economically, the Strip is in a bad way. Opportunities for young Palestinians to enter the market and achieve are less than 0. So, with no cash and no prospect of freedom, the only option is extremism for many Palestinians. Enter the revered Moussa who it must be said like many groups before has promised its people the land of its forefathers (Israel), a capital (Jerusalem) and a return to law (strict interpretation of Sharia). These words speak volumes to the people of Gaza. They are only human after all and such promises to a long sufferring people must be very convincing. Mecasr's bottom line: Expect more activity on the Jund front. Hamas have made their intentions clear that it will accept no challengers. Jund for their part have a blood debt to pay. Expect a few dead Hamas gunmen in the next few weeks.

Ultra-Islamism in Gaza

In the old days there was the PLO led by the turban clad and charismatic Yasser Arafat. Then out of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt came Hamas, which subsequently expelled Arafat's Fatah from the Gaza Strip in 2007. Now, a new group, Jund Ansar Allah (Soldiers of the Companions of God), has emerged in the southern town of Rafah to challenge the Hamas hegemony in the Gaza Strip. Leader of the group, Sheikh Abdel-Latif Moussa (reportedly killed on 15 August 2009) declared at the Ibn Taymiya mosque on Friday the creation of an Islamic Emirate in the southern Gaza area. Naturally, Hamas took exception to this declaration and the subsequent gun battles between Jund and Hamas gunmen left over 20 people dead overnight. It may well be that this new group is a flash in the pan, a sect if you will that has attempted to fight above its weight class. However, the fact that it was able to organise without much fuss and then suddenly appear to a world audience is of grave concern. The questions being asked now are, how strong is this group, who does it owe allegiance too and are there others just like it? Mecasr will update shortly.

15/08/2009 Kabul attack in pictures

 

Taleban strike in the heart of Kabul

A Taleban suicide car bomber struck in the heavily fortified Wazi Akhbar Khan district of Kabul earlier today. Local officials believe the target of the attack was the US Embassy; however, due to the heavy security presence in the district the bomber was forced to detonate outside of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force HQ. The approximately 1,100 pounds of explosives caused significant material damage and killed at least three people - 70 others were wounded. The attack, which comes days before the 18 August Independence Day commemorations and 20 August General Elections, is yet another indication of the Taleban's growing ability to conduct operations in the economic and political heart of the city. We can certainly expect further attacks before the election results are released.

Yemen's Saada in turmoil - Update

Local officials are now reporting that Shiite rebels have kidnapped 15 local aid workers aligned to the Red Crescent and that heavy fighting is continuing in some areas of the governorate. The rebels have denied conducting the kidnapping. This all smacks of propaganda. Watch this space for developments.

Yemen's Saada in turmoil

The Yemeni government launched a fresh offensive against Shiite rebels in the restive northern Saada governorate on 11 August in what regional analysts are pitting as the beginning of the 6th Saada war since 2004. Shiite rebels, who favour the formation of a Hashemite kingdom in Yemen, have captured a number of towns and strategic mountain top positions in recent months forcing the government's hand. The army will be keen to force the Houthis to negotiate as soon as possible as a protracted war is not in the interests of the Yemeni state, which is already battling to stem growing secessionist sentiment in southern Yemen and rising Islamist extremism in its eastern governorates.