Post-election buzz in Iraq

Iraq staged successful provincial elections in 14 of its 18 governorates on 31 January, in what was viewed as a test of the Nouri al-Maliki administration's ability to provide adequate security and advance 'normal politics' in a country that has been racked by a bloody insurgency and vicious sectarian violence. The vote itself was accompanied by stringent security measures and these measures seem to have worked, with only minor violence having been reported at some polling stations. But this vote was never really about the vote itself. It was and is about the outcome. Since the vote was staged, Sunni tribes based in Anbar region and aligned to the powerful Awakening Council have claimed that the vote was fraudulent and that there main opponent in the Anbar governorate, the Iraqi Islamic Party, was complicit in the vote rigging.

Now this may not seem that surprising for many watchers of third world elections - opposition groups often accuse each other of fraud usually once the results seem to indicate they may not win - however, in Iraq, the allegations must be taken seriously and if any fraud is discovered the vote must be held again. Anbar was the centre of the Iraqi Sunni insurgency post-2003 and only recently has order returned following a deal struck between the central government and the local tribes to rout Sunni insurgents, like al-Qaeda, from the large desert region. Another concern remains the tribe's commitment to democracy. They have long wanted to control the Anbar region, through the Awakening council; if they were to lose the vote (regardless of whether fraud is proven or not) violence is likely. Maliki's successful vote may yet prove to be a catastrophe not only for the new Iraqi political system but also for the stability of the state as a whole. Watch this space - results due out later today (5 Feb).

Evaluating risk

Heres a short piece I did exactly two years on how to evaluate terrorism and political stability. Very simplified but provides a starting point for understanding how risk is evaluated.

Terrorism:

Current status

We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)

There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.

This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.

The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.

The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)

On that occasion___.

OR / AND

The most recent threat received from a terror group.

Modus Operandi & Area of operation

The most high risk regions are__.

The safer regions are_____

Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)

The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)

Analysis

We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___ Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents

Personal response

What you can do-general security advice.

Politics:

Historical context

Main political players, current government Government policies, policy direction

Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology

Threat to stability?

Internal - external

Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence

Response to the threat.

Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc

Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security. Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.