The Afghanistan forecast

On 7 October 2001, the military forces of the United States and United Kingdom began a bombardment of Afghanistan in an attempt to oust the ruling majority Pashtun Taliban movement. The operation dubbed "Enduring Freedom" was supported by the predominantly Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan or Northern Alliance (NA), which led the ground assault against the Taleban. Initial Taleban resistance crumbled under the massive onslaught and Kabul soon fell to the Western backed NA. Western ground troops arrived in 2002 under the guise of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) which was taken over by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in 2003, and were tasked with securing the gains made by the initial invasion and restoring order and the rule of law in Afghanistan. Since 2003, NATO-ISAF has enjoyed only partial success in restoring order. Many parts of the country remain lawless and ungoverned. Within this hostile climate of hostility and disorder, the Taleban and other like minded groups have reemerged as dominant forces challenging and threatening the very survival of the Western backed Hamad Karzai government. There is no better example of this growing insurgent dominance than the 13 July assault on a remote US outpost in Kunar province that left nine US soldiers dead. The attack led US commanders to reevaluate the outposts position near the village of Wanar and eventually decide to withdraw its forces from the fort.

The Taleban came to prominence in Afghanistan in the early 1990s. Supported by the Pakistan intelligence services and military and filled with recruits from Pashtun communities in western Pakistan and southern Afghanistan, the Taleban came to be the greatest threat to the newly installed mujahadeen government in Kabul. In 1994, the Taleban fought a series of battles against local warlords dispelling many of them and capturing Kandahar, a major southern city. By 1996, the group had captured Kabul and had almost complete control of the country (the NA controlled 10% of the territory, predominantly in the north east). The Taleban's first order of business after coming to power was to install a new legal code which was, in essence, a strict interpretation of Sharia Law. Non-Pashtun Afghanis were also largely denied access to power and were systematically replaced in all sectors of the country's political system and economy.

During this period, the Taleban forged closer relations with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the only states which recognised the Taleban administration. Osama Bin Laden's flight to Afghanistan in the late 1990s, also led to a now infamous relationship between the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Indeed, Bin Laden's partial financing of the regime and the addition of al-Qaeda fighters into the Taleban armed forces led to the development of closer ties between the two organisations, ties that are thought to continue to this day.

The 2001 ouster of the Taleban by the combined US/UK/NA forces crippled the organisation, but did not wholly destroy it. The Taleban's strong support from local Pashtun groups along the shared Pakistan - Afghanistan border and its bases in Pakistan have helped to restore the organisation to a point were it can boast an insurgent force of 2-3,000 combatants. Its technical and numerical inferiority to NATO-ISAF and US forces (47,000 troops combined) has also largely been overcome with the Taleban resorting to an al-Qaeda type strategy similiar to typical guerilla wars elsewhere in the world. Suicide bombings, ambushes and kidnappings combined with a 'hit and run' strategy have resulted in the group making great strides towards eroding the limited authority of the Hamad Karzai government and draining the coalition NATO-ISAF and US forces to a point where Western nations have begun calling for a full withdrawal from the embattled country.

Pakistan's troubled Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province are also fertile breeding grounds for the Taleban. The Haqqani faction of the Pakistan Taleban rule with impunity in northern Waziristan and offer support to the Taleban in the form of bases and training areas. Leader of the faction, Jalaluddin Haqqani is also long serving Taleban leader, having served in the Taleban administration in the 1990s and being named the one time Taleban military commander in 2001.

The consequence of the alliance with al-Qaeda, its strong community support and its bases in Pakistan have recently been revealed with the frequency of attacks in provinces (Ghazni, Wardak and Parwan) surrounding Kabul and in the capital itself increasing year on year since 2006. For NATO-ISAF and Afghan forces overcoming these considerable obstacles will require a multi-pronged approach. Engaging with and protecting local communities will have to be prioritised. Creating alliances is a key ingredient in fighting a counter-insurgency campaign. However, this may require more troops on the ground, something a war weary Western public may not be so keen on. Coalition forces will also need to target insurgent bases. Unfortunately, many of these are based in Pakistan. Obtaining permission to carry out target attacks or convincing the Pakistan military to re-establish control in its lawless western regions will require a massive effort. Expect the Taleban to continue its growth for the short-term.

Other factions:

Hizb-i-Islami (Islamic Party) is led by Gulbaddin Hekmatyar. It is also known as Hizb-i-Islami Gulbuddin. The group, based in Kunar, Laghman, Jalalabad and Paktia is ethnic Pashtun and supports the Taleban against the coalition forces in Afghanistan. The group gained a reputation during the Soviet occupation as the most violent of the seven mujahadeen groups operating against the Soviets. Hekmatyar received support from Pakistan and the US during this period. His party has since fallen out of favour with Pakistan and continues an insurgency against the Taleban from Maza e sharif and Jalalabad. The group must not be confused with the Khalis faction of Hizb-i-Islami, based in Nangarhar and led by Mulavi Younas Khalis, which broke away from the main faction in 1979.