Al-Qaeda in the descent, Taleban in the ascendancy

US propaganda during the month of July has indicated that Al-Qaeda attacks have decreased. In addition, a number of media reports have suggested that AQ are planning to move to Sudan and Somalia. These announcements come on the back of increased tensions following Iranian Shahab Missile tests on 9 and 10 July. Meanwhile, a US Naval carrier group has reposition from the Persian gulf to the Gulf of Oman to assist in operations against the Taleban in the Afghanistan theatre. Propaganda aside this may suggest that the US and the Iraqis are gaining significant momentum in Iraq or it may mean that AQ are holding off on attacks at present. In Iraq itself 9 of the 18 provinces have now been returned to Iraqi security control. The Stratfor article below also suggests that Iran and the US are looking to forge a long term deal over Iraq and that the first fruits of these negotiations are now being reaped as violence ebbs.

Afghanistan meanwhile remains firmly in the grip of a Taleban insurgency and no such deal seems to have been reached in this arena. The number of NATO Isaf troops based in the country remains well below levels required to bring stability. The Taleban have also evolved their tactics AQ style and are carrying out a sustained guerilla type war against foreign forces. The attacks have also begun to be focused on Kabul province. The feeling is that attacks against the economic and political heart of the country are likely to carry more weight than elsewhere in the country. The Taleban have also strenghthened its position in Pakistan's tribal areas and following peace deals with the Pakistan government and its alliances with local tribal groupings, its future seems secure. The NATO forces are left with few options other than increasing the size of its force to battle the Taleban and its allies (AQ & tribals).

One cant help but feel that the Afghan tragedy is a repeat of so many conflicts in the past. The British, Soviets and now the Americans have all come unstuck in the region. No deals will bring the Taleban to heel. The geography of Afghanistan offers the Taleban ample room to move and plan. Overcoming them will require active Nato presence in most rural and urban communities. If they can not succeed in this mission the Taleban will stay strong.