Gen. David Petraeus is due to report back to congress today and tomorrow on the current state of the Iraq war. His findings will be crucial in the final decision on the troop withdrawal from the embattled country. Debka.com outline a few of the current issues confrotning the US army in Iraq. Below are a few selected. For the full text, please click here.
Along with improved security in some districts in and outside Baghdad, US commanders on the spot agree that they are still short of strength for cementing their control of the territory gained and completely routing al Qaeda and Sunni and Shiite insurgent forces. They also agree that the security gains and the measures they have put in place will soon melt away once American troops are gone.
Baghdad’s fall to the Shiites would spell the demise of Baghdad as the seat of central federal government. The country would then fall apart into three or four entities which would claim independence and sink into fraternal warfare. The American army would become irrelevant having lost is primary missions, barring the fight against al Qaeda.
The offensive against al Qaeda’s forces in Iraq is still unfinished. The jihadists appear to have lowered their profile, but nowhere, even in Anbar, do their followers seem to be at breaking point or near turning tail. The reverse is true: they are struggling towards a recovery from successive American blows.
It is clear to even the most amateur watcher of the Iraq war that the US find themselves in a no win situation. Withdraw and the state collapses leading to a Shiite theocracy and Iranian resurgence to the detriment of local allies. Stay and continue to suffer politically damaging heavy losses. Much rests on the ability of the Iraqi forces themselves wresting control of the country away from unlawful elements. If the Iraqi government falls or is driven out of Baghdad, the game is up and Iraq will fall squarely into the Somalia category.
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