Crucial Lebanese poll

The Lebanese parliament is due back in chambers on 25 September to elect a new Christian president to replace pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud. The issue of the presidency is largely symbolic, however, if a new president is not chosen before the November cut off or a quorum of 86 out of 128 MPs is rejected by the opposition, the country may face a serious internal political stalemate that may threaten civil war. Since the events of 2005 when ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was brutally slain in an apparent Syrian car bomb attack the country has been deeply divided between two main camps, pro-Syrian March 8 forces and anti-Syrian March 14 forces led by the Future Movement (FM) and Hariri's son Saad. The opposition has voiced concerns over the FM's pro-Western stance and its refusal to accept a unity government deal that would give the opposition more of a voice and crucially, a cabinet veto. During November 2006, the opposition launched a series of protests and demonstrations in Beirut in an attempt to force the issue. However, backed by the army the government has managed to hang on to power and reject the opposition demands.

The two sides are now obliged to work together to elect a new president. While it is constitutional requirement to have a Christian president, just how the government plans to elect him remains a mystery. With insufficient parliamentary clout to force a quorum, the FM has no choice but to negotiate with the opposition. There are signs also that the opposition may be softening their demands to ease this decision. In late August, parliamentary speaker Nabih Berry said the opposition would be willing to withdraw their unity government demand if a consensus candidate could be elected. This new development may be an opportunity for the FM to open up to a possible opposition candidate or at least a candidate acceptable to both parties.

For the meanwhile at least, hopes are high that the government can pull through this current crisis and with the army having recently defeated the Fatah al-Islam insurrection near Tripoli (2 September), come to some sort of working agreement with the opposition. However, these positive signs must not detract from the continuing risk. There is reason to believe that the country may be heading towards all out civil war. Hezbollah maintains a well equipped armed force in the south and have allegedly reequipped their missile crews and troops with Syrian assistance. The USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group has also taken up position along the Lebanese coast and Adm. William Fallon has met with the FM government on at least one occasion. The outcome of the presidential election is being watched by all sides and its outcome either peaceful or violent will have serious ramifications for the future of this embattled Mediterranean state.