Tracking the evolution of terrorism has become a key concern for policy makers, security experts and regional leaders. Understanding the root causes of jihad (holy war - terrorism, depends who you are) are imperative in understanding the motives of the enemy and predicting whether or not the enemy will strike again. Understanding these causes would also help in the formulation of policy designed to engage with and ultimately negate the threat to domestic security.
Jihad is in essence a response to the presence of the infidel on holy ground. The creation of the state of Israel in 1948 is seen as a turning point in the history of the region and a catalyst to the subsequent conflicts in the region and future conflicts. Israel remains a blight on the region, a blight Arab Muslims hope to eradicate. Arabs have long struggled to develop a single homogenous approach to how this would be achieved. Arab nationalism and now the rise of political Islam are approaches being used to build nation states and homogenous polities capable of forming sustainable governments and governments strong enough to eradicate foreign bodies such as Israel.
Since 1948 the situation has become complicated with the involvement of foreign powers, particularly the US in the power struggles in the region. The US has made matters worse by siding with the Jewish state against the Arab. This in and of itself has created additional fuel for the anti-Western/Jewish fire that threatens to burn out of control. Israel and the US are seen as occupying powers by most Arabs in the region. Removing these forces and destroying their homelands has become a prerequisite of most jihadi groups. Some states however have come to accept the status quo, have accepted that Israel and the US are here to stay. Chief amongst them are Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Lebanon. This does not mean that their people agree however with their leaders, however. Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and a host of other Islamist parties have taken advantage of this feeling amongst the masses and are making gains regionally, threatening the so called apostate allies of the West and Israel. Buoyed by a strong religious ideology and public mandate they have called for an end to foreign interference and the destruction of the Zionist state. Jihadi groups have benefited from this rise in political Islam and favourable economic conditions (poverty) as well to recruit new members and gather support for their campaigns against the West and Israel. There task has been made increasingly easy by subsequent US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. For the dissillusioned millions jihad presents an opportunity to strike out at an enemy, that albeit technologically superior, is relatively close at hand and vulnerable to guerilla style and terror tactics.
Solutions for the West are not simple. It is essential that moderate Muslims are engaged in dialogue. These groups must be shown as the new order. Of course breaking with the past, notably the nationalist Arab parties, will be difficult but if sustainable peace is to be had it is essential that moderates be approached in order to sideline conservative and extremist Muslims. This change must be accompanied by a withdrawal of foreign armies from Arab soil. Allowing local actors to control their own destinies is imperative. Military and political power must return to local leaders. Lastly, local economic and religious elites must be forced to give up their power to the new emerging classes. They were supported in the past by Western foreign policy to the detriment of local peoples. If democracy is truly to be embraced these actors must be coerced into giving over power. In a nutshell the West must acknowledge the failure of 60 years of foreign policy in the region and accept their losses, pulling out and creating a new reality a reality that is acceptable to the majority of the Arab people, not to political elites and select allies.
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