Syria's endless cycle of violence

The rebellion in Syria, which can now technically be described as a civil war, continues to rage. End game scenarios are difficult to predict; however, what is clear is the that rebellion has grown and that fighting is impacting on much of the country, including the state's two primary urban areas, Damascus and Aleppo. Below is a recently updated video of Syrian rebels shelling (seemingly at will) the Damascus International Airport using medium range mortars. Rebels have also infiltrated the capital and carried out a number of devastating bombings. The video below shows a car bomb in Damascus on Christmas Day. With the appetite for war so strong still in Syria one senses that this is a war that could last a very long time. Even if Assad is removed somehow, the consequences of 45,000 dead on the national psyche will be hard to erase and the prospect of endless bloodshed fueled by political, ethnic and religious hatred grows more likely.

Extremists and politics in Iraq

Iraq is making progress against Islamist extremism. Or is it? A tally by AFP found that 139 people were killed in terrorism-related attacks in December. This is the second lowest tally for 2012 surpassing October's low of 136 by a small margin. The signs are positive, at least if you count the body bags, that the war on terrorism being led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is working. The Iraqi government has at its disposal nearly a million men under arms, including police and military units. Bolstered by US aid and increasing oil revenues the ability of the security branch to contain the insurgency is likely to improve IF the Iraqi government can hold things together. Nothing breeds instability quite like chaos at the highest levels of state.

Maliki is facing a stern challenge at the moment from Sunnis. Over the past fortnight Iraq's Sunni-dominated governorates of Anbar, Salah ad-Din and Ninawa have been restive. Near daily protests against the arrest of Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutlak's staff on terrorism charges have been reported in these regions. The temptation here is to argue that sectarian tensions are boiling over. Maliki is Shiite, the protesters are Sunni. Simple? Not so simple. The protesters are also being supported by firebrand cleric Moqtadr al-Sadr, a Shiite. His opposition to the al-Maliki regime has bordered on the manic at times and one senses that the opposition is more to do with al-Maliki than with some dark sectarian agenda. However, the danger lies in the propagation of this sectarianism. If political crises such as these are not handled quickly they can easily escalate into violence. And if this happens, all scenarios become viable, including sectarian war.

While official tallies are good indicators or an insurgency's state or the ability of the security branch they do not necessarily reflect an end to the threat. Political chaos nearly always breeds conflict in states where disunity is rife and weapons widely available. Should the Iraqi politicians not work out a plan to stabilises their relations groups like the Islamic State of Iraq are likely to fill the void.

The weekly wrap up

This past week has been quite interesting in the Middle East. In Lebanon, a car bomb was detonated in the Asrafiyah area of the city on Friday. The explosion killed eight people including a major security force official, Wissam Hasan. The attack also occurred in a Christian area of the city but this was less important than the primary victim who had close ties to the Sunni Muslim opposition, specifically Rafik Hariri, a Sunni Muslim and former prime minister who was killed in similar circumstances in 2005. The assassination touched off gunfights between Sunni and Shiite/Alawite Muslim gunmen across the country, including in southern Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon. In Iraq, Baghdad has slipped under the radar; however, shooting and bomb attacks on Saturday and today (23 Oct) have left over two dozen people dead. Much of the same you may say, but the government prides itself on its security in the capital and these incidents will undermine popular confidence in the police and the government. The region will also host a number of anniversaries and religious events in the coming days. Today is Liberation Day in Libya. It’s been a year since Libya was officially ‘liberated’ by the rebel NTC but it seems the country’s problems are just beginning with militia’s running riot and assassinations a near daily occurrence. The big event of course will be in Saudi Arabia this Wednesday when the number of Hajj pilgrims will peak at two million. Pilgrims will flood into Mecca, Medina and Mina placing heavy strain on public transport and the security forces. Other areas of interest are Yemen, where the Southern Movement has reportedly agreed to join the National Dialogue meeting scheduled for November, and Syria which remains in the throes of a seemingly endless and bloody civil war.

Summing up my recent distractions

It has been a while since my last blog entry and that is because the Middle East has been keeping us at red24 pretty busy. From Libya to Iran there are fears and concerns that revolutions are failing and that war is imminent. Libya is a particularly problematic country at the moment. The government is still struggling to finalise a cabinet and Islamist militias are making life difficult for the government in the east. In Egypt, President Mursi is facing strong opposition from secularists. On Friday clashes were reported between protesters denouncing Mursi's government and Muslim Brotherhood protesters. The unrest is unlikely to be the last as Egypt is in the final stages of finishing a constitution. The biggy in the region has to be the threat of war between Iran and Israel. Who knows where this fight is going? We've worked on a security brief on the issue at red24. You can access it here . One pretty cool thing I've read lately is a book called 'Son of Hamas' Its a biography written by and about Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of a founding members of Hamas who turned to Christ during his 20s. If that wasn't shocking enough he also spied on Hamas for Shin Bet, the Israeli intelligence agency. Obviously, his Muslim family have denounced him and he has fled to the US. He is currently based in California and attends the Barrabas Road Church. For anyone trying to understand the Palestinian Israeli conflict this is a must read. Ok, well hopefully I won't take too long next time to post something, keep well!

Anti-US protests - What we don't see

The current round of anti-US unrest in the Muslim world, in protests against the incendiary US-produced film, Innocence of Muslims, has been manufactured. This past week Egypt’s Grand Mufti, Ali Gomaa, openly condemned the film and its contents. His speech effectively started the ball rolling with protests first reported in Egypt and then in Libya. Gomaa is also partly responsible for fanning the flames of the 2006 Prophet Muhammed caricature unrest which led to protests and attacks on Danish embassies across the globe. The political forces in Egypt, notably Muhammad Mursi, the current president, and the second largest Islamist party, al-Nour, have attempted to hijack this growing anti-Western sentiment for their own gain. They have called for mass protests. This issue now threatens to snowball further as conservative Islamist groups from Morocco to Bangladesh call for similar anti-US demonstrations today. The film itself is an insult to every film maker on the planet. It is poorly made and produced and its screenplay is banal and void of any logical progression. That this came to spark the level of opposition in the Muslim world, clearly indicates a hidden hand and ulterior motive.

Coordinated bombings and shootings across Iraq on Sunday

Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked numerous targets across Iraq on Sunday killing over 100 people. The attacks coincided with the sentencing of Vice President al-Hashimi on terrorism charges. He received the death sentence. The two incidents would appear to be connected. Hashimi is a Sunni Muslim politician who has strong links with Sunni political parties in the country. The attacks were in all likelihood committed by al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni group, which is attempting to incite sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis. By attacking during the sentencing it is sending a strong message to the government and raising tensions significantly between Shiites, who were the most frequently targeted on Sunday, and their Sunni brethren.

US Naval positions

The incredibly useful US naval update from Stratfor was released on 5 September and has some rather interesting info. There are currently two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, the Dwight D Eisenhower and Enterprise while the Big Deck Amphibiouswarfare ship, Iwo Jima, is cruising off the Yemeni coastline. There has been talk of a major US-led naval wargame in the Persian Gulf in September and an increase in naval military activity in this region is anticipated. This is all part of a larger game being played between the West, Israel and Iran over the latters nuclear development program. The US is keen to show its military might to coerce Iran into acceding to IAEA regulations and demands to inspect its nuclear sites. Iran has responded by announcing its own war games. . . Game on.