Extremists and politics in Iraq

Iraq is making progress against Islamist extremism. Or is it? A tally by AFP found that 139 people were killed in terrorism-related attacks in December. This is the second lowest tally for 2012 surpassing October's low of 136 by a small margin. The signs are positive, at least if you count the body bags, that the war on terrorism being led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is working. The Iraqi government has at its disposal nearly a million men under arms, including police and military units. Bolstered by US aid and increasing oil revenues the ability of the security branch to contain the insurgency is likely to improve IF the Iraqi government can hold things together. Nothing breeds instability quite like chaos at the highest levels of state.

Maliki is facing a stern challenge at the moment from Sunnis. Over the past fortnight Iraq's Sunni-dominated governorates of Anbar, Salah ad-Din and Ninawa have been restive. Near daily protests against the arrest of Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutlak's staff on terrorism charges have been reported in these regions. The temptation here is to argue that sectarian tensions are boiling over. Maliki is Shiite, the protesters are Sunni. Simple? Not so simple. The protesters are also being supported by firebrand cleric Moqtadr al-Sadr, a Shiite. His opposition to the al-Maliki regime has bordered on the manic at times and one senses that the opposition is more to do with al-Maliki than with some dark sectarian agenda. However, the danger lies in the propagation of this sectarianism. If political crises such as these are not handled quickly they can easily escalate into violence. And if this happens, all scenarios become viable, including sectarian war.

While official tallies are good indicators or an insurgency's state or the ability of the security branch they do not necessarily reflect an end to the threat. Political chaos nearly always breeds conflict in states where disunity is rife and weapons widely available. Should the Iraqi politicians not work out a plan to stabilises their relations groups like the Islamic State of Iraq are likely to fill the void.