South Africa's military mis-adventures

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) deployed to the eastern DRC in December 2023. The deployment, which follows the announcement of the phased MONUSCO withdrawal, is aimed at supporting efforts to stabilize the troubled region where rebel groups (allegedly some supported by neighboring countries) have waged decades of war against the central government and local citizens. The latest manifestation of the militia scourge is the M23...one of approximately 120 groups of varying sizes and capabilities in the region. 

A large part of the deployed contingent are members of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). The SA contingent consists of approximately 3,000 troops at a cost of ZAR 2 billion (for 2024). They along with Malawian and Tanzanian troops are arrayed near Goma and Sake in the North Kivu Province. The deployment has gotten off to a shaky start with M23 rebels making inroads across the province recently and threatening Goma itself. On Feb. 14, indirect (mortar) fire targeting a SANDF position killed two soldiers and wounded three more.

The SANDF is chronically underfunded, under-resourced, and understaffed. Some estimates place the number of available troops at any given time at around 14,000. These forces, which are stretched due to operations in Mozambique, domestically in South Africa and now DRC, lack sufficient combat and supply support. Rooivalk helicopters (3) in the DRC have been grounded for a year. Of the 5 Oryx helicopters in the DRC, only two are functioning. This means that air support during defensive or offensive operations are basically non-existent and if troops are in need of evacuation or resupply getting these will be increasingly difficult.

It seems only a matter of time before yet another ANC-led South African disaster. Any concerted push by rebels on a SADC force base is likely to result in a massacre. Rebels are reportedly well-equipped to deal with any force they encounter in the region. Rwanda is accused of supplying M23 with advanced weaponry, including guided mortar and SAMs to the M23. 

The decision to deploy to the country seems yet another worryingly daft decision by Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC inner circle who are keen to portray South Africa as a player on the international stage. Following its disastrous ICJ case - which resonated only with authoritarian and socialist governments and movements - the deployment could be the nail in South Africa's international prestige coffin. This will come at the expense of South African service personnel.

Sall's Senegal in the Throws of Crisis

Senegal is trumpeted as an example of a successful democracy. Well, by African standards its done rather well. The military hasn't played a major role in regime change recently like countries elsewhere in the sub-region. Yet, here we stand, again. President Macky Sall and his Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition have decided to delay the elections until the end of the year. The move comes on the back of years of democratic back sliding with various prominent opposition figures arrested and tried on varying charges. The opposition claim the cases are politically-motivated. The government claims innocence and rule of law. Well, if rule of law is to stand the test now rests with the judiciary. The presidential election can not be held at the end of the year. It must be held in quarter 2. Will the judiciary stand or will it succumb meekly like so many other institutions in Africa have over the past decade. And what of the street, civil unrest is sure to follow.

The Middle East Conflagration

The attack on Tower 22 in Jordan this last weekend by Iran-aligned militia must be seen as a 'red line' by the Biden administration. An attack that can not go unresponded to. Indeed, Biden has warned that a response is coming. As of Feb. 1, we have not seen any action. Yet, action is highly likely. What form it takes is another question. 

It is unlikely that the US will conduct any direct attack on Iranian territory. To do so, would escalate beyond what the US government would find acceptable. In turn, Iran would be required to escalate as well. My sense is they will target an Iranian or Iranian adjacent interest in one of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. Syria is the most likely target. The Syrian regime hasn't the capability to respond and the country hosts IRGC forces. Israel regularly attacks IRGC and Hezbollah interests in this country. Finding a target that will adequately measure the attack on Tower 22, assuage the thirst for retaliation among the US and its allies and meet the US public's expectations for an adequate response will be key. 

We wait and see.