Yemen's sorrow

The initiation of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and a number of its regional allies on 26 March added further distress to an already unstable country. The air strikes, which have been wide ranging and have impacted on cities across the country, have targeted members of the Shiite Muslim Houthi militia and military forces loyal to former President Ali Saleh and his son, who is also leader of the Republican Guard, Ahmed Saleh.

The air attacks followed a period of Houthi ascension in the state leading back to September when its fighters entered Sanaa and essentially assumed control of the government. The Houthi measures were largely in response to plans by the regime, led by President Hadi, to undermine Houthi controlled territory in the north through the creation of new region. Following its September victory the Houthis moved further south, east and west and took control of several governorates. Opposed to the group, Sunni tribes in Taiz, Ibb and Al-Baida, supported by militants aligned to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, initially resisted the Houthi advance in a series of bloody battles.

In 2015, Hadi, who by now was in a position of severe weakness first resigned and then later rescinded his resignation and fled to Aden, declaring it the new capital. The declaration was rejected by the Houthis who initiated an offensive southwards towards the port city in March. Following a request by the Yemen foreign minister, the Saudis and a coalition of regional states, launched strikes against the Houthis. Battles between Sunni tribes, military units and local militias loyal to Hadi and forces aligned to the Houthis, including pro-Saleh forces, have also punctuated the conflict, most notably in Aden. Taking advantage of this, and adding further flame to the fire, Islamist extremists in Hadramawt have sought to seize control of territory, including areas near the regional capital, Mukalla.

The end game remains unclear. A Saudi-led ground intervention remains a possible short-term outcome; however, acquiring the requisite resources to manage a successful invasion will take time. The Saudis are likely to seek to continue to diminish the Houthi camps area of operation and impose a blockade on the country, thus preventing arms supplies from reaching the Shiite militia. This will likely be a first step in forcing the Houthis to withdraw to their northern Saada strongholds and to accept a negotiated settlement that is agreeable to the Sunni Arab states, Hadi and the Sunni tribes. The Houthis are likely to seek to circumvent the blockade, adapt to their air asset inferiority and stoke unrest in areas controlled by its rivals.

What is clear is that Yemen's political system is all but shattered and conflict is likely to remain a common long term feature of the country's security environment.